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US Dollar Gets Crushed Following Poor Jobs Report

US Dollar Gets Crushed Following Poor Jobs Report

Dylan Jusino, Contributor


Talking Points:

- US non-farm payrolls increased by +156K in August and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.4%; both prints missed their respective forecasts

- US wages increased by +2.5% y/y and +0.1% m/m; both prints came in below estimates

- Participation and underemployment came in flat

See our longer-term forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides

This morning’s jobs report certainly left much to be desired as we begin September with bearish jobs reports. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls figure coming in at +156K, missing expectations of +180K. The July reading was revised down to +189K from +209K; overall, the net-two month revision was -41K.

Earnings also disappointed as the both the year-over-year and month-over-month figures missed estimates. Both prints came in underestimates by 0.1%.

In addition, unemployment ticked up to 4.4% returning to the June level at the start of the summer. Participation and underemployment were flat at 62.9% and 8.6% respectively.

As far as rate hikes are concerned, this report is doesn’t do justice. CME Group sees a December rate hike at an unlikely 37%.

Here are the data driving the US Dollar this morning:

- USD Unemployment Rate (JUL): 4.4% higher than expectations at 4.3%, from 4.3%.

- USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JUL): +165K versus +180K expected, from +202K (revised lower from +205K).

- USD Labor Force Participation Rate (JUL): 62.9% from 62.9%.

- USD Average Hourly Earnings (JUL): +2.5% versus +2.6% expected, from +2.5% (y/y).

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, September 1, 2017

Chart 1: DXY Index 1-minute Chart (September 1, 2017 Intraday)

Immediately following the data, the US Dollar Index traded lower, dropping from 92.58 ahead of the data to as low as 92.10. At the time this report was written DXY recovered to 92.52, right around the pre-data level.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.