Never miss a story from Martin Essex

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Martin Essex

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points

- The US trade deficit fell more than expected in June, narrowing to $64 billion from $66 billion.

- Durable goods orders surged by 6.5% after an upwardly-revised fall of 0.1% in May.

- The numbers suggest that tomorrow’s second-quarter GDP growth figure could be higher than the annualized 2.5% previously forecast.

Check out our new Trading Guides: they’re free and have been updated for the third quarter of 2017

The US trade deficit in goods fell to $63.9 billion in June, below both the $65.5 billion expected and the prior month’s $66.3 billion. Moreover, durable goods orders surged by 6.5% last month, well above the 3.9% rise predicted and May’s upwardly revised fall of 0.1%.

Taken together, the numbers suggest that the first estimate of US second-quarter economic growth tomorrow could be higher than the 2.5% annualized predicted by economists before the latest data and well above the 1.4% growth rate recorded in the first quarter.

At the margin, the numbers also make another tightening of US monetary policy this year a little more likely but the Dollar was little affected. Earlier it had crept higher after its sharp fall in the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC statement, which was generally interpreted as being dovish.

Chart: EURUSD Five-Minute Timeframe (July 26-27)

US Trade, Durable Goods Orders Data Suggest Upside for Q2 GDP

Chart by IG

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

For help to trade profitably, check out the IG Client Sentiment data

And you can learn more by listening to our regular trading webinars; here’s a list of what’s coming up