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US Core PCE Inflation Measure Stays Below Fed's 2% Target

US Core PCE Inflation Measure Stays Below Fed's 2% Target

2017-03-31 13:05:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Talking Points

- The core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 1.8% year/year in February, well below the Fed’s 2% target.

- However, that won’t prevent the Fed from raising US interest rates several times this year, providing support for the Dollar.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

US inflation, as measured by the core PCE price index, was unchanged at 1.8% in February. The January number was revised up from 1.7% but the data still show the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation comfortably below its 2% target.

The Fed therefore remains on course to raise interest rates at least twice this year, and probably more, providing ongoing support for the Dollar, which barely moved on the figures.

Chart: EUR/USD 1’ Timeframe (March 31 Intraday)

US Core PCE Inflation Measure Stays Below Fed's 2% Target

Chart by IG

The headline PCE price index climbed by 2.1% year/year, up from 1.9% the month before but in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, personal incomes rose by 0.4% month/month, down from an upwardly revised 0.5%, while consumer spending increased by just 0.1% month/month, down from 0.2%. Both figures were in line with forecasts but the increase in spending was the smallest since August and suggested that first-quarter economic growth in the US could be soft.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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