Talking Points
- Australian retail sales came in surprisingly weak for November
- Is this a problem or merely a lull before the usual holiday splurge?
- Aussie Dollar markets seem to think it might be the former
The Australian Dollar slipped a little in early local trade on Tuesday after official retail sales figures came in surprisingly weak.
Sales grew 0.2% on the month in November, they showed. That was far weaker than both the 0.5% rise notched up in October and the 0.4% gain which markets were expecting.
However, November shopping figures can usually be taken either way. On the one hand, they might bode ill for the crucial holiday shopping season. On the other, they might simply be the results of consumers pulling in their horns in anticipation of spending to come.
The Australian Dollar market seems to have chosen to accentuate the negative for the moment. AUD/USD was already under a bit of pressure on the five-minute chart, having slipped from 0.73638 in the minutes before the data saw daylight. It slipped to 0.73538 right afterwards, with the Australian benchmark stock index falling too. It was off about 43 points after the numbers.
Given this quite substantive data miss, it looks as though any clues as to Australian consumers’ actual holiday mood are going to be at a substantial premium for Aussie Dollar markets in the days and weeks ahead.
Retail gloom, Aussie gloom: AUD/USD
Chart compiled using TradingView
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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research
Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX
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