Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Breaking news

Australia added 114.7k jobs in July, beating 30.0k estimate. Unemployment rate fell to 7.5%, outperforming the 7.8% estimate

Real Time News
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/RD5jfhST15
  • If you missed today's live coverage of the Australian jobs reports where I discussed recent price action and the trajectory of $AUDUSD, $AUDJPY and $AUDNZD, check out the recording on YouTube here - https://t.co/DFtslv9p9J
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.36% Gold: 1.08% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/D73pACW7Wo
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.20% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.19% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/iWfve22mC7
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.74%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.31%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/pr60jYN4lU
  • Are we witnessing a positive month for the FTSE as bulls take control? Find out here: https://t.co/j89IW0WMY7 https://t.co/JECJAfuFJW
  • #AUDUSD edged slightly higher after better-than-expected jobs report https://t.co/1sG8q6hGcc
  • 🇦🇺 Full Time Employment Chg (JUL) Actual: 43.5K Previous: -38.1K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
  • 🇦🇺 Employment Change (JUL) Actual: 114.7K Expected: 40K Previous: 210.8K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
  • 🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate (JUL) Actual: 7.5% Expected: 7.8% Previous: 7.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
Best US NFPs of 2016 Means Little for US Dollar, Fed Policy Outlook

Best US NFPs of 2016 Means Little for US Dollar, Fed Policy Outlook

2016-07-08 13:10:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Omar Habib,

Talking Points:

- US Nonfarm Payrolls beats expectations significantly, posting best headline of 2016.

- Unemployment Rate rises as labor participation rates rises less than new job growth.

- USDOLLAR Index gains tempered as rates markets don’t move much.

Last month the question was if the weak May employment report was a ‘one-off’ event. After slowly weakening labor reports over the last few months, the new question will be if this strength is a one-off event; markets have barely pulled forward pricing for a Fed rate hike. The US employment report showed that the US economy added 287k jobs, beating expectations of 180k, despite a downward revision to last month’s already sluggish report to +11k. The unemployment rate rose more than expected, to 4.9% from 4.7%, beating expectations of 4.8%.

The rise to 4.9% unemployment was largely driven by a rise in the participation rate which rose slightly to 62.7% from 62.6%. This report was modestly positive throughout, with the underemployment rate falling, participation rate rising, jobs growth exceeding expectations, and wage gains continuing to push higher (albeit at a slower pace than anticipated).

As the best jobs report in all of 2016 and since October 2015, this report puts pressure on the Federal Reserve's efforts towards normalization and continues the conflicting nature of signals the Fed is observing in consideration for their rate path.

As financial markets continue to roil in uncertainty in the aftermath of Brexit, stronger economic data may point to a significantly different direction for the Fed. However, fed funds futures continue to diverge from Fed expectations, rising only slighlty from 40% to 48% in December 2016, well below the psychologically important level of 60% (chart 1 below).

Table 1: Fed Funds Futures Contract Implied Probabilities: July 8, 2016

Best US NFPs of 2016 Means Little for US Dollar, Fed Policy Outlook

Here are the data that’s lifting the US Dollar this morning:

- USD Unemployment Rate (JUN): 4.9% versus 4.7% expected, from 4.7%.

- USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JUN): +287K versus +180K expected, from +11K (revised lower from +38K).

- USD Average Hourly Earnings (JUN): 2.6% versus 2.7% expected, from 2.5% (y/y).

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, July 8, 2016

Chart 1: EUR/USD 1-minute Chart: July 8, 2016 Intraday

Best US NFPs of 2016 Means Little for US Dollar, Fed Policy Outlook

In an immediate response to the data, the US Dollar rose sharply against the Euro, with the EUR/USD falling to $1.1003 from $1.1083. By the time this report was written, the pair had recovered slightly to $1.1022. With FX volatility edging higher again, it’s the right time to review risk management principles to protect your capital.

Read more: Preview for June US NFPs and Outlook for USD-pairs, Fed Policy

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist and Omar Habib, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.