News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Dollar Index has broken major uptrend support and risks accelerated losses into the December open. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here:
  • The MACD is an indicator that uses exponential moving averages (EMA) to determine trend strength along with entry points based on crossovers. Find out how you can use the MACD as a buy/sell signal here:
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here:
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here:
  • Cyclical and non-cyclical stocks can help diversify a trader’s equity portfolio. Get your guide to understanding these stocks here:
  • Beautifully put.
  • Gold prices could claw back lost ground ahead of the non-farm payrolls report for November, buoyed by a dovish FOMC, falling real yields and rising inflation expectations. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here:
  • Rather than focusing on earning a specific number of pips per day, traders need to focus on what can be controlled. In trading terms this relates to following a strategy perfectly, with no emotion or hesitation. Learn more here:
  • That if you’re offended by what someone says on Twitter and that ruins your day, you live an extremely lucky life to be able to have that be your biggest problem for the day.
Fed National Activity Index Shows US Economy Cooling Last Month

Fed National Activity Index Shows US Economy Cooling Last Month

2016-03-21 04:23:00
Varun Jaitly,

Talking Points:

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index continues to show modest growth
  • All 4 contributing categories showed declines compared from January
  • The Activity Index is used as a timely proxy for important quarterly GDP figures

The Chicago Fed’s leading indicator of economic strength and inflation showed a slight decrease since January. Three of the four broad contributing categories registered negative readings, whereas all four saw a slight decline from January’s figures. The 3 month moving average that follows the monthly data moved up slightly to -0.07, this suggests economic growth is recovering for the world’s largest economy. That will be confirmed when the BEA releases the official quarter GDP figures on April 28 when the advanced reading for 1Q 2016 is due.

Of the four contributing categories, production declined to -0.21 versus +0.29 in January, and manufacturing increased by 0.2 percent versus a 0.5 percent increase in January. Sales, orders and inventories contributed 0.03 compared to -0.02 in January. Employment provided mixed contributions to the index as civilian employment increased less in February than in January, but non-farm payrolls came in stronger in February than in January. Personal consumption and housing also came in lower compared to their contributions in January, however housing starts came in stronger in February.

The CFNAI presents a meaningful correlation to the official GDP report that investors track closely. Both measure similar components of the economy, however GDP is a quarterly figure whereas NAI is updated monthly, as a result they tend to follow each other. In the chart below you can see the relation between the two series. With regards to the recent climate of economic sentiment, the CFNAI has shown little indication that there are risks of a recession, in fact the 3 month moving average has been moving closer to signaling a pickup in economic growth rather than slowing. Thus, the CFNAI although not boasting robust economic strength, has continued to dispel fears of either a recession or crippling economic weakness that has spurred risk aversion and Fed policy ceiling concerns.

Fed National Activity Index Shows US Economy Cooling Last Month

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.