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Australian Dollar Soars as Jobs Data Diminishes RBA Rate Cut Bets

Australian Dollar Soars as Jobs Data Diminishes RBA Rate Cut Bets

Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributing Senior Strategist


Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar climbs as November’s employment report beats expectations
  • Australia added net 71.4K jobs versus -10.0k expected, unemployment at 5.8%
  • Positive economic data likely decreased RBA rate cut bets as bond yields gain

Losing Money Trading the Australian Dollar? This Might Be Why.

The Australian Dollar rallied against its US counterpart after November’s employment report crossed the wires. Australia gained 71,400 employees, topping economists’ estimates of a 10,000 loss. This is the largest amount of jobs added over the course of one month since the turn of the century.

Most of the hiring surge came from the full-time positions (+41,600). The country also gained 29,700 part-time jobs. The participation rate increased to 65.3 percent from 65.0 marking the highest proportion since September 2012. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent, the lowest level since April 2014.

Meanwhile, RBA rate cut bets continue to diminish. The Reserve Bank of Australia has a data-dependent monetary policy outlook with easing likely being its next move. Australian front-end government bond yields rallied as the jobs report came out. In addition, overnight index swaps are now pricing in a 36 percent probability of an interest rate cut from the RBA over the next 12 months, down from 76 percent yesterday.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.