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Fed Presidents Weigh in  Further on Possibilty of 2015 Rate Hike

Fed Presidents Weigh in Further on Possibilty of 2015 Rate Hike

Ryan Cox,

Talking Points:

  • Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said FOMC will weigh data to judge if it is ‘prudent’ to act or wait for rate hike
  • New York Fed President Dudley said weaker global growth could slow US economy
  • Chicago Fed President Evans believes timing of liftoff not as important as path

Follow up-to-date commentary release by top officials with DailyFX Real-time News.

Three Fed President’s Lockhart, Dudley, and Evans spoke in different venues today on monetary policy and the economy. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the FOMC’s September policy meeting. The group of Fed President’s reiterated some of the topics highlighted in those minutes.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart gave his speech in New York. Lockhart said the domestic US economy is expanding at a moderate pace. He stated that recent progress suggests a rate hike sooner than later. The rather hawkish Lockhart said the FOMC will weigh data to judge if it is prudent to act or wait on the next rate hike. Here are the highlights from Lockhart’s speech:

  • The Economy remains on a satisfactory track
  • A 2 to 3 percent GDP growth is plausible range
  • Inflation data to show upward trend in due course
  • Jobs added enough to absorb labor force growth
  • Still some slack remaining in labor markets
  • No change to outlook but sees bit more downside risk
  • More ‘ambiguity’ in current moment than few weeks ago
  • Slightly less confident today than six weeks ago
  • Watching global events for signs of spillover into US
  • Consumer data to be most telling for October/December FOMC meetings
  • Sees Fed liftoff at either Oct. or Dec. FOMC meetings

New York Fed President William Dudley gave an interview with CNBC. The more moderate Dudley stated that he is still in the 2015 liftoff camp, however, not pre-committed to this year. He said that weaker global growth could slow US economy but that it is important not to overweight financial market volatility. Although, he expects that volatility is likely to go up as a liftoff gets closer. Here are the highlights from Dudley’s interview:

  • Domestic side of economy looks good, though there is drag from trade
  • Seeing some evidence of slowing inflation below Fed’s objective
  • On September’s jobs coming across weaker, 120K-150K jobs probably sufficient gains
  • He wanted more information at time of September FOMC meeting
  • Watching to see if slower Chinese growth feeds emerging market weakness
  • Possible that FOMC could raise rates in October
  • Every meeting should be a live meeting

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans gave a speech today in Milwaukee. Evans said that policy should be somewhat more accommodative than September suggests. However, the more dovish Evans stated precise timing for a liftoff not as important as path. His speech focused heavily on inflation targets and headwinds that could slow the possibility of a liftoff. Here are the highlights from Evans’ speech.

  • Core inflation headwinds may not fade before mid-2016
  • Slower growth in China among risks to US inflation
  • Would like to have more confidence of inflation moving to 2 percent target
  • No problem in moderately overshooting 2 percent inflation target
  • Fairly confident Fed employment goal will be met in reasonable time
  • Appropriate for Fed rate to still be sub-1 percent at end of 2016
  • Best policy to take is a very gradual approach to tightening
  • Once Fed begins raising rates may expect US Dollar to rise

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