News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
  • While the meetings of central bankers in the US, Japan and the UK will be front, left and center of traders’ minds this coming week, it would be wise not to ignore next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Get your euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • GBP/USD’s consolidation could end soon if price breaks out of a symmetrical triangle in play since July. At this time, a downside breakout is likely following the appearance of a death cross. Get your weekly $GBP forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The Federal Reserve rate decision is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the price of gold as the central bank appears to be on track to scale back monetary support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DavidJSong here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
AUD/USD Forecast: Bear Flag Continues to Take Shape Ahead of April

AUD/USD Forecast: Bear Flag Continues to Take Shape Ahead of April

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD trades in a narrow range even though the Australian government expands its fiscal stimulus program, and the rebound from the yearly low (0.5506) may start to unravel over the coming days as a bear flag takes shape.

AUD/USD Forecast: Bear Flag Continues to Take Shape Ahead of April

AUD/USD showed a limited reaction to Australia’s $130B JobKeeper payment program, with the exchange rate largely holding Friday’s range despite the greater-than-expected uptick in China’s Purchase Managers Index (PMI).

The range bound price action in AUD/USD may persist over the remainder of the week as Australia toughens its lockdown measure to ‘stage 3,’ and the efforts to contain COVID-19 may put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further support the economy as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warns “businesses will close and people will lose their jobs.”

As a result, the RBA may go beyond its yield-curve control program and implement more non-standard measures as the official cash rate (OCR) sits at its effective lower bound (ELB), but it remains to be seen if the unconventional tools will have the intended impact as the central bank pushes monetary policy into uncharted territory.

Image of RBA interest rate decisions

In turn, the RBA may stick to the current policy at its next meeting on May 5as Governor Philip Lowe and Co. pledge to purchase Australian government bonds for “as long as market conditions warrant,” and the central bank may merely attempt to buy time as the fiscal stimulus package reaches a combined A$320B.

With that said, the response by Australian authorities may continue to shore up AUD/USD amid the unprecedented steps to combat the weakening outlook for growth, but the rebound from the yearly low (0.5506) may start to unravel over the coming days as a bear flag takes shape.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for AUD/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 2, with the high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December materialized on the first day of the month.
  • The opening range for 2020 showed a similar scenario as AUD/USD marked the high of the month on January 2, with the exchange rate carving the February high during the first week of the month.
  • However, the opening range for March was less relevant, with the high of the month occurring on the 9th, the same day as the flash crash.
  • With that said, recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) raises the scope for a larger rebound in AUD/USD as the oscillator bounces back from bounces back from oversold territory and breaks out of the bearish formation from earlier this year, but the recent recovery in the exchange rate may end up being short lived as a bear flag formation takes shape.
  • The string of failed attempts to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6190 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6210 (78.6% expansion) may continue to generate range-bound prices, but a break of channel support along with a move below 0.6020 (50% expansion) may spur a move towards the 0.5880 (261.8% expansion) to 0.5900 (100% expansion) region, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.5710 (161.8% expansion).

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.