We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #Euro has dropped through support guiding it higher from late-March lows, suggesting that the end of a corrective rebound has given way to downtrend resumption. Get your $EURUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/gpKowYNmGi https://t.co/CY7RuZf91s
  • What are a few of the common trading mistakes made by traders? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/Q3sPmP2rya #tradingstyle https://t.co/ayjehPGEeT
  • $USDCAD came close to taking out the 17-year-high just a few weeks ago, but this was followed by an aggressive pullback down below the 1.4000 handle.Get your USD/CAD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/aWmL2rlWzG https://t.co/cauVFdBxsd
  • Follow up: S&P affirms 🇩🇪Germany's AAA/A-1+ rating, outlook stable (BBG). As for PMI data, it painted a darker picture⬇️ Final print for services: 31.7, preliminary: 34.5 Final print for composite: 35.0, preliminary: 37.2 https://t.co/x2SESwo0zr
  • RT @NorthmanTrader: You need to click to expand to see this chart via @byHeatherLong https://t.co/tXd4T45FqS
  • #Dow Jones: The blue-chip index lags the S&P 500 and #Nasdaq 100 as Boeing continues to weigh on the Industrial Average. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Z495djPG07 https://t.co/3rTF8I3KBg
  • $USDMXN: A breakout above 25.44 will get it to a new highs. Get your USD/MXN market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/KFRLmtBZsv https://t.co/Lo3bvThH0w
  • #Gold closed above the 50-day average providing a bullish signal. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @malkudsi here:https://t.co/h3yVqIxwVc $gld https://t.co/0xqiCWFaml
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.43% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.48% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -1.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ST3oKR8Kyt
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.81% Gold: 0.37% Silver: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tCzfLiJU9V
NZD/USD Rate Clears 2019 Low as RSI Sits in Oversold Territory

NZD/USD Rate Clears 2019 Low as RSI Sits in Oversold Territory

2020-03-03 01:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD attempts to retrace the decline from last week amid growing bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut, but the exchange rate may continue to exhibit a bearish behavior as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory.

NZD/USD Rate Clears 2019 Low as RSI Sits in Oversold Territory

NZD/USD bounces back from the yearly low (0.6191) as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) comes under pressure to insulate the US economy, with President Donald Trump tweeting that “as usual, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve are slow to act.”

Image of Fed Fund futures

At the same time, Fed Fund futures now reflect a 100% probability for a 50bp rate cut on March 18, and the FOMC may have little choice but to reestablish its rate easing cycle as the coronavirus continues to pose a threat to the global supply chain.

It remains to be seen if the FOMC will respond to the coronavirus and abandon the wait-and-see approach as Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida insists that “the current stance of monetary policy likely will remain appropriate. In turn, the Federal Reserve may merely attempt to buy time as “participants concurred that maintaining the current stance of policy would give the Committee time for a fuller assessment of the ongoing effects on economic activity of last year's shift to a more accommodative policy stance.”

More of the same from the FOMC may spark a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as market participants scale back bets for lower interest rates, but a rate cut paired with a shift in the forward guidance may fuel a larger rebound in NZD/USD as the central bank reestablishes its rate easing cycle.

Until then, NZD/USD may continue to exhibit a bearish behavior as the exchange rate snaps the range from the second half of 2019, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends the downward trend from earlier this year and sits in oversold territory.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of NZD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • NZD/USD has failed to retain the range from the second half of 2019 as the decline from earlier this year produces a break of the October low (0.6204), and a ‘death cross’ may take shape over the coming days as the 50-Day SMA (0.6514) approaches the 200-Day SMA (0.6485).
  • At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) undermines the recent rebound in NZD/USD as the indicator continues to track the downward trend from earlier this year, and the bearish momentum may resurface as the oscillator sits in oversold territory.
  • Need a break/close below the 0.6180 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6210 (78.6% expansion) region to open up the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6070 (100% expansion) to 0.6090 (261.8% expansion), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6000 (100% expansion) to 0.6010 (161.8% expansion).
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.