News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Copper prices surging above the 2017 high as RSI climbs above 70 for the first time since July Hate to say I told you so......but 👉https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/11/17/Copper-Prices-Poised-to-Outperform-on-Chinese-Recovery-Vaccine-News-.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $CPER #XCUUSD https://t.co/u3ucCf64Vz
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.08%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.40%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/mUnqic6URw
  • Australia says it will vigorously fight Chinese wine tariffs - BBG $AUD $XJO
  • South Korea to decide on November 29 whether to raise social distancing rules Ministry says tougher rules could cause side effects - BBG $USDKRW
  • Get your stock market basics right - what is the stock market and how does stock trading work? Find out here: https://t.co/JfAJLAtlsY https://t.co/MIgA7RlblS
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/OSOYhffKNr
  • Japan FinMin Aso: Extra budget must also help change post-virus economy No decision on giving cash handouts to single parents Local banks must be strong enough to serve communities and must make own decisions on issues like mergers - BBG $JPY
  • China to impose anti-dumping deposits over Australian wine from Nov 28th - Reminder: Alcoholic beverage exports have over a 30% exposure to China $AUD https://t.co/jLTjF9AV68
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (OCT) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -2.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/AU5jpWFHZB
GBP/USD Rate Rebound to Benefit from Robust U.K. Job/Wage Growth

GBP/USD Rate Rebound to Benefit from Robust U.K. Job/Wage Growth

2018-09-10 20:05:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

British Pound Talking Points

GBP/USD trades on a firmer footing amid growing hopes for a Brexit deal, but another failed attempt to test the August-high (1.3145) keeps the broader outlook tilted to the downside as the exchange rate continues to track the bearish formation from earlier this year.

Image of daily change for major currencies

GBP/USD Rate Rebound to Benefit from Robust U.K. Job/Wage Growth

Image of daily change for gbpusd

The recent rebound in GBP/USD may gather pace over the next 24-hours of trade as the U.K. Employment report is anticipated to show the economy adding another 10K jobs in July, with Average Weekly Earnings excluding Bonus expected to increase to 2.8% from 2.7% the month prior.

Image of bank of england interest rate decision

A batch of positive developments may heighten the appeal of the British Pound as it puts pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to further embark on its hiking-cycle, and the central bank may increase its efforts to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as ‘an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon.

However, a batch of lackluster data prints may do little to influence the monetary policy outlook as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ‘continues to recognise that the economic outlook could be influenced significantly by the response of households, businesses and financial markets to developments related to the process of EU withdrawal,’ and Governor Mark Carney & Co. may attempt to buy more time at the next meeting on September 13 as ‘any future increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.

Image of IG client sentiment

Keep in mind the IG Client Sentiment Report continues to show a skew in retail sentiment as 61.3% of traders are net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.58 to 1.. The retail crowd has been net-long sinceApril 20 when GBP/USD traded near the 1.4050 regioneven though price has moved 7.5%lower since then.The number of traders net-long is 11.6% lower than yesterday and 17.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.7% higher than yesterday and 3.9% lower from last week.

The persistent slant in retail positioning continues to offer a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, with the broader outlook for GBP/USD still tilted to the downside as the exchange rate preserves the bearish formation from earlier this year. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Image of gbpusd daily chart
  • Still watching the monthly opening range as GBP/USD appears to be making another attempt to test the August-high (1.3145), but the lack of momentum to close above the 1.3030 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3090 (38.2% retracement) region may keep the exchange rate within the downward trending channel from earlier this year.
  • Need a move below the 1.2890 (50% expansion) to 1.2950 (23.6% expansion) region to open up the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2750 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2800 (50% expansion), with the next downside region of interest coming in around 1.2630 (38.2% expansion) to 1.2640 (23.6% retracement), which sits just beneath the 2018-low (1.2662).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for the British Pound

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES