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AUD/USD Extends Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of RBA Meeting

AUD/USD Extends Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of RBA Meeting

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Confined in Bearish Formation Amid Mixed BoE Rhetoric.

- AUD/USD Extends Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of RBA Meeting; Former-Resistance in Focus.

- Sign Up for the DailyFX Trading Webinarsfor an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

DailyFX TableGBP/USD

GBP/USD pares the decline from earlier this week even as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney pledges the central bank ‘will do everything it can’ to support the U.K. economy, and the pair may continue trade on a firmer footing as a growing number of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) officials adopt an improved outlook for the region.

BoE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane struck a hawkish tone and argued a U.K. rate-hike ‘would be a sign of the economy healing,’ and went onto say that ‘rather than being a source of fear or trepidation, this ought to be a good news story about the economy proving resilient.’ The upbeat remarks suggests the MPC may alter the monetary policy outlook at the next meeting on November 2 as ‘a withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had injected in August last year would help to moderate the inflation overshoot while leaving monetary policy very supportive,’ and Cable may continue to recoup the losses following the U.K. Referendum as a bull-flag formation appears to be taking shape.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • GBP/USD stands at risk for a larger pullback after failing to test the 1.3700 (38.2% expansion) hurdle as it trades within a downward trending channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic.
  • GBP/USD is coming up against the former-resistance zone around 1.3300 (100% expansion) to 1.3320 (38.2% retracement), with the next downside region of interest coming in around 1.3210 (50% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3090 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3120 (78.6% retracement).

The Australian dollar lags behind its major counterparts, with AUD/USD at risk for further losses as it extends the series of lower highs & lows from earlier this week.

The bearish sequence may gather pace ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) October 3 meeting as the exchange rate clears the August-low (0.7808), and the pair may continue to give back the advance from the summer months as the central bank appears to be in no rush to remove the record-low cash rate. In turn, Governor Philip Lowe may largely reiterate that ‘a rise in global interest rates has no automatic implications for us here in Australia,’ and the central bank may merely attempt to buy more time as ‘the slow growth in wages is putting a strain on household budgets and contributing to low rates of inflation.

As a result, more of the same from the RBA may fuel the recent decline in the aussie-dollar exchange rate especially as the pair fails to preserve the upward trend from earlier this year.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Downside targets remain on the radar for AUD/USD as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish formations from earlier this year, with the near-term outlook capped by the 0.8150 (100% expansion) hurdle.
  • Break of the August-low (0.7808) opens up the former-resistance zone around 0.7720 (23.6% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion), which also lines up with the 100-Day SMA (0.7758), with the next downside region of interest coming in around 0.7650 (38.2% retracement).

Retail Sentiment

Retail Sentiment

Track Retail Sentiment with the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

  • Retail trader data shows 35.9% of traders are net-long GBP/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.78 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since September 05 when GBP/USD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.0% higher than yesterday and 8.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.6% lower than yesterday and 8.7% lower from last week.
  • Retail trader data shows 46.3% of traders are net-long AUD/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.16 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since June 04 when AUD/USD traded near 0.74145; price has moved 5.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.2% higher than yesterday and 12.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.5% lower than yesterday and 19.0% lower from last week.
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.