News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • It took some time for USD/MXN to respond to weakness in equity markets, but this week it came to life as U.S. weakness spread across global markets. Get your $USDMXN technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/G8b6w1wCzH https://t.co/zEtpARMkMg
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.38%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 65.20%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WGk95Bnjx5
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.45% Oil - US Crude: -0.63% Silver: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/RvLy6xA9Is
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.32% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.38% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/MZIiNOFxXu
  • Hey traders! Wrap up your week with a market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/DHufbBKbDu
  • Canadian PM Trudeau says Canada purchasing 20 million vaccine doses from Astrazeneca -BBG
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.26% France 40: 0.03% Wall Street: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.06% Germany 30: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/jByk8LUAt6
  • UK Government Official says either outcome is possible on Brexit
  • UK Government Official says if gaps in fisheries and level playing field are bridged, the EU's more constructive attitude will need to be translated into more realistic positions in the days to come
  • Big headline that says the EU has informed the UK that it must commit to some key demands in next week's trade talks if there is progress before the October deadlines. That said, I don't think this is a particularly new refrain between those two. It's the clock that matters
USD/JPY Unfazed by BoJ, Weakness to Persist on Less-Hawkish FOMC

USD/JPY Unfazed by BoJ, Weakness to Persist on Less-Hawkish FOMC

2017-07-21 15:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Outlook Unfazed by BoJ, Weakness to Persist on Less-Hawkish FOMC.

- Australian Dollar Struggles Ahead of 2Q CPI as RBA Reiterates FX Risk.

- USD/JPY Retail Net-Shorts Slip 24.5% from Previous Week.

DailyFX Table

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/JPY

111.17

112.08

111.15

74

93

The near-term outlook for USD/JPY appears to be unfazed by the dovish comments coming out of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as the pair slowly works its way back towards the June-low (108.80).

USD/JPY slips to fresh monthly lows even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) now expects to achieve the 2% inflation-target in fiscal-year 2019, and the pair stands at risk of facing additional losses next week should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show a greater willingness to retain the current policy for the foreseeable future. Despite talks of unloading of the balance sheet, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may attempt to buy more time amid the mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. economy, and the greenback may struggle to hold its ground in the second-half of the year as Fed Fund Futures continue to show a 50/50 chance for another rate-hike in 2017.

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • USD/JPY comes up against the near-term support zone around 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.60 (38.2% retracement), but the near-term outlook remains tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) carve a bearish formation going into the last full-week of July.
  • Next region of interest comes in around 109.40 (50% retracement) to 109.90 (78.6% expansion) followed by the June-low (108.80), which sits just above the Fibonacci overlap coming in at 108.30 (61.8% retracement) to 108.40 (100% expansion).

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

AUD/USD

0.7917

0.7959

0.7875

41

84

Fresh rhetoric coming out of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears to have tamed the near-term rally in AUD/USD, with the pair at risk for a near-term pullback as it fails to extend the series of higher-highs from earlier this week.

RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle argued ‘no significance should be read into the fact the neutral rate was discussed at this particular meeting’ as the central bank keeps the official cash rate at the record-low, and went onto say that the strength in the local currency ‘isn’t helpful’ amid the ongoing adjustment in the Australian economy. Despite forecasts for an uptick in the region’s 2Q Consumer Price Index (CPI), a downtick in the core measure for inflation may drag on the Australian dollar as it encourages the RBA to stay on the sidelines throughout 2017.

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • The near-term advance in AUD/USD appears to be stalling ahead of the 0.8020 (38.2% expansion) hurdle, with the pair at risk for further losses should the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flash a textbook sell-signal and slip below 70.
  • First downside region of interest comes in around 0.7850 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7860 (61.8% expansion) followed by the former-resistance zone around 0.7740 (78.6% expansion) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion)
  • Keep in mind the broader outlook for AUD/USD has perked up as the pair breaks out of the 2016-range, while price and the RSI retain the bullish formations carried over from earlier this year.
IG Sentiment

Track Retail Sentiment with the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

  • Retail trader data shows 59.9% of traders are net-long USD/JPY with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.49 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since June 29 when USD/JPY traded near 111.959. The number of traders net-long is 3.3% lower than yesterday and 10.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 24.5% lower from last week.
  • Retail trader data shows 26.7% of traders are net-long AUD/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.75 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since June 04 when AUD/USD traded near 0.74595; price has moved 6.2% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 13.1% lower than yesterday and 2.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.3% lower than yesterday and 6.3% lower from last week.
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst.

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES