News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar is pulling back from what’s become a strong outing in the month of September. Get your $USD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/hOvSiIDFLT https://t.co/d0SEnfJT0s
  • webinar starting right now - looking at 1. themes for q3 close 2. debates starting tonight, what might market ramifications be? 3. heavy week of data out of the us - $USD in the spotlight https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/455809179 https://t.co/tZxa4c2zVl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.20%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 62.11%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9tCHS7o18f
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 17:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-29
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.93% Gold: 0.62% Oil - US Crude: -4.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/674URQqbej
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.49% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.41% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.37% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.17% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/NLmATP58eY
  • Trader confidence is relatively buoyant in the currency markets, benefiting FX pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD at the expense of the safe-haven US Dollar. Get your market sentiment update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/ir7hXNfxec https://t.co/2IwbcrkrM5
  • Join @JStanleyFX 's #webinar at 1:00 PM ET/5:00 PM GMT for his weekly update on trading price action. Register here: https://t.co/ZCcMdyaTsB https://t.co/xn5x2AG5vI
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.16% Germany 30: -0.17% France 40: -0.17% US 500: -0.63% Wall Street: -0.81% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/z1qnxoAWz7
  • Reports of German Chancellor Merkel saying EU recovery funds will be increasingly delayed came just as $EURUSD was struggling with former support (H&S neckline) as new resistance. When fundamentals and technicals converge... https://t.co/BDvM9DXBW6
USD/JPY Eyes May High Amid Growing Bets for December Fed Rate-Hike

USD/JPY Eyes May High Amid Growing Bets for December Fed Rate-Hike

2017-07-03 16:08:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Canadian Dollar Resilience to Persist Ahead of Employment Report.

- USD/JPY Eyes May High Ahead of FOMC Minutes Amid Growing Bets for December Rate-Hike.

DailyFX Table

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/CAD

1.3001

1.3007

1.2965

33

42

The near-term strength in the Canadian dollar may persist over the coming days as the region’s employment report is expected to show the economy adding another 11.3K jobs in June.

A further improvement in labor market dynamics is likely to heighten the appeal of the loonie as it boosts the outlook for growth and encourages the Bank of Canada (BoC) to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low. Recent comments from Governor Stephen Poloz suggest the central bank is more inclined to move away from its easing-cycle as the rate cuts from 2015 ‘have done their job,’ and BoC may gradually alter the monetary policy outlook over the coming months especially as the ‘the Canadian economy’s adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete.’

With that said, a major shift in market behavior appears to be underway as USD/CAD snaps the upward trend from 2016 and takes out the lows from earlier this year.

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • USD/CAD stands at risk for a further declined as it continues to carve a series of lower-highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the downward trend from May and trades in oversold territory; another close below the 1.2970 (61.8% retracement) hurdle may open up the next downside target around 1.2890 (161.8% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2750 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2770 (38.2% expansion).
  • However, the inside-day (harami) formation may point to a round of short-covering, with the dollar-loonie exchange rate at risk of facing range-bound conditions during the major U.S. holiday; need to see the RSI push above 30 and clear the bearish formation to look for a near-term recovery in USD/CAD.

Have a question about the currency markets? Join a Trading Q&A webinar and ask it live!

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/JPY

113.34

113.46

111.91

114

155

The Japanese Yen continues to weaken against its major counterparts, with USD/JPY at risk for a further advance as the string of better-than-expected data prints coming out of the U.S. economy lift interest-rate expectations.

The dollar-yen exchange rate appears to be on course to test the May-high (114.37) with Fed Fund Futures now showing a greater than 60% probability for a December rate-hike. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may reinforce expectations for higher borrowing-costs as Chair Janet Yellen & Co. remain confident in achieving the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon, and the fresh remarks may spark a bullish reaction in the greenback should the committee show a greater willingness to start unloading the balance sheet over the coming months.

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Topside targets remain in focus as USD/JPY breaks out of the previous week’s range, with a close above the 112.80 (38.2% expansion) hurdle opening up the next region of interest around 113.80 (23.6% expansion) to 114.30 (23.6% retracement), which largely lines up with the May-high (114.37).
  • Will a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it extends the bullish formation from the previous month and approaches overbought territory; a break above 70 may be accompanied by fresh 2017-highs in USD/JPY as the bullish momentum gathers pace.

Make Sure to Check Out the DailyFX Guides for Additional Trading Ideas.

IG Sentiment

Check Out the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

  • Retail trader data shows 76.7% of traders are net-long USD/CAD with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.29 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since June 07 when USD/CAD traded near 1.34947; price has moved 3.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 16.3% higher than yesterday and 36.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.4% higher than yesterday and 29.0% lower from last week.
  • Retail trader data shows 54.3% of traders are net-long USD/JPY with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.19 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 17 when USD/JPY traded near 114.31; price has moved 0.8% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.4% lower than yesterday and 20.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.6% higher than yesterday and 6.0% higher from last week.
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES