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EUR/USD Continues to Threaten Range Resistance Ahead of ECB Meeting

EUR/USD Continues to Threaten Range Resistance Ahead of ECB Meeting

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Continues to Threaten Range Resistance Ahead of ECB Policy Meeting.

- AUD/USD Capped by December High (0.7525); Australia Employment Report on Tap.

CurrencyLastHighLowDaily Change (pip)Daily Range (pip)


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • EUR/USD clings onto the gains from earlier this week, but the pair may face range-bound conditions ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision on January 19 as President Mario Draghi and Co. keep the door open to further support the monetary union; broader outlook for the euro-dollar remains tilted to the downside, with the failure to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0660 (50% expansion) to 1.0680 (78.6% expansion) raising the risk for a move back towards the monthly opening range.
  • After extending the deadline for the quantitative easing (QE) program to December 2017, the Governing Council is expected to retain the current policy as ‘headline inflation rates are likely to pick up significantly further at the turn of the year,’ and more of the same from President Draghi may sap the bearish sentiment surrounding the single-currency especially as the central bank plans to throttle back its asset-purchases to EUR 60B/month starting in April.
  • Lack of momentum to push/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0660 (50% expansion) to 1.0680 (78.6% expansion) may open up broader range, with the first downside region of interest coming in around 1.0470 (38.2% expansion) to 1.0500 (50% expansion) followed by 1.0780 (100% expansion) to 1.0790 (38.2% expansion).
CurrencyLastHighLowDaily Change (pip)Daily Range (pip)


AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • The near-term rebound in AUD/USD may continue to unravel as the former-support zone around 0.7530 (38.2% expansion) appears to be acting as new resistance; the bearish harami (inside-day) candle formation paired with the failed run at the December high (0.7525) may bring the broader bearish outlook back into focus especially as near-term advance appears to be getting exhausted.
  • Nevertheless, Australia is expected to add another 10.0K jobs in December following a 39.1K expansion the month prior, and an upbeat employment report may boost the appeal of higher-yielding currency as it encourages the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to gradually move away from its easing-cycle; may see Governor Philip Lowe adopt a hawkish tone and talk down expectations for additional monetary support at the February 7 policy meeting as the central bank argues ‘globally, the outlook for inflation is more balanced than it has been for some time.’
  • Failed attempts to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7500 (50% retracement) to 0.7530 (38.2% expansion) may open up the downside targets in the week ahead, with the first area of interest coming in around 0.7390 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7410 (23.6% expansion) followed by 0.7330 (50% retracement) to 0.7350 (38.2% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.