We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/d00z4019XE
  • The medium-term #gold outlook still seems favorable as the #Fed, #ECB and more keep rates around 0. Immediate event risk ahead includes the #RBA and #BoC interest rate decisions, US jobs data and Brexit. Get your gold market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/ABXy78LmUn https://t.co/rCALcGaKOL
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/Cxt86jl28N
  • The Japanese Yen fell for a third consecutive week with price testing resistance into June open. Here are the levels that matter on the $USDJPY weekly technical chart. Get your #currencies market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/1QPXP0g7Ew https://t.co/WUtXHoRoQX
  • $USDZAR: A rally from here could be an important tell as to whether the level seen as support previously (17.76) will turn into a point of resistance for sellers to lean against. Get your $USDZAR technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/TNsQ4JJu6E https://t.co/I4yCjs2ja0
  • The US dollar continued to sell-off this week and the greenback’s future will be decided by commentary from the White House and not the Federal Reserve over the coming days and weeks. Get your #currencies market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/lpHneO3s2h https://t.co/bZ5klohLNd
  • #Gold prices have continued to push higher as expectations have built for global Central Banks to remain very loose and passive with monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/h5tF3kAZfd https://t.co/VAYy9FGHcQ
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/dQxkG68R0I https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
AUD/USD Carves Near-Term Bullish Formation Ahead of RBA, 3Q GDP

AUD/USD Carves Near-Term Bullish Formation Ahead of RBA, 3Q GDP

2016-12-05 18:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Carves Near-Term Bullish Formation Ahead of RBA Meeting, 3Q GDP Report.

- NZD/USD Recovery Continues to Dwindle as PM John Key Unexpectedly Resigns; 0.7200 in Focus.

DailyFX

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

AUD/USD

0.7485

0.7489

0.7413

32

76

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • AUD/USD may extend the recent series of higher highs & lows over the next 24-hours of trade as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep the official cash rate at the record-low of 1.50% at the last 2016 interest rate decision; it seems as though Governor Philip Lowe & Co. are on course to conclude the easing-cycle ahead of 2017 as the central bank argues inflation is ‘expected to pick up gradually over the forecast period;’ more of the same from the central bank may spark a bullish reaction in the aussie as market participants scale back bets for additional monetary support.
  • Nevertheless, Australia’s 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is anticipated to highlight a slower expansion, with the growth rate projected to increase an annualized 2.5% following the 3.3% expansion during the three-months through June, and a lackluster print may keep the exchange rate capped especially as the aussie-dollar fails to preserve the upward trend from earlier this year.
  • May see another test of the former-support zone around 0.7500 (50% retracement) to 0.7530 (38.2% retracement) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to come off of oversold territory, with the next topside hurdle coming in around 0.7590 (100% expansion) to 0.7600 (23.6% retracement).

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

NZD/USD

0.7147

0.7153

0.707

12

83

NZD/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • NZD/USD pares the advance from the previous week as Prime Minister John Key unexpectedly steps down as the leader of the National Party and paves the way for Finance Minister Bill English to take the helm; even though the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside, the kiwi-dollar may stage a larger rebound going through the first full-week of December as long as it holds above near-term support around 0.7040.
  • The shift in leadership may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to further support the real economy ahead of the 2017-general election, but it seems as though Governor Graeme Wheeler will endorse a wait-and-see approach while appearing before Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee on December 7 as the central bank argues ‘current projections and assumptions indicate that policy settings, including today’s easing, will see growth strong enough to have inflation settle near the middle of the target range;’ failure to preserve the upward trend from earlier this year highlights a broader shift in market behavior, with a break/close below 0.6950 (38.2% retracement) negating the risk for a longer-term bull-flag formation.
  • Until then, the near-term outlook remains supportive, with the pair at risk for a more meaningful run at 0.7200 (38.2% retracement), with the next topside objective coming in around 0.7240 (61.8% retracement).

For More Updates, Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for LIVE Analysis!

DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd flipped net-long NZD/USD just ahead of December, with the ratio hitting a 2016-extreme reading of +1.78 during the previous month, while traders have been net-long AUD/USD since November 9.
  • NZD/USD SSI sits at +1.26 as 56% of traders are long, with long positions 12.4% lower from the previous week as open interest stands 11.3% below the monthly average.
  • AUD/USD SSI sits at +1.45 as 59% of traders are long, with long positions 4.3% lower from the previous week, while open interest stands 0.2% below the monthly average.
  • Market participation across the commodity bloc. currencies have narrowed coming into December, while Japanese Yen crosses have bucked the trend as open interest for USD/JPY stands 5.1% above the 30-day average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Will the Market Respect Support This Week?

Euro Rallying as Italian Referendum Dashes MS5 Hopes

Technical Focus: Bond Yields - That was Fast!

New Zealand Dollar Clobbered as PM Key Steps Down

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.