We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/THWhPAS6AM
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq explode higher with stocks surging in response to shockingly better-than-expected monthly jobs data. Get your #equities market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/nuMVWOzzuC https://t.co/M3nGBjd7kZ
  • The record-breaking NFPs increase behind us and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday sets the tone for my trading video: 'Dow Soars Above 200-Day Average on NFPs, Will the #Fed Keep the Dollar Sliding' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/06/06/Dow-Soars-Above-200-Day-Average-on-NFPs-Will-the-Fed-Keep-the-Dollar-Sliding.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/kquvec5HVc
  • Seasonal factors, oversupply issues and the outbreak of COVID-19 has seen the price of liquefied #naturalgas (LNG) fall to 22-year lows (1.519), with the situation exacerbated by ‘fuller-than-normal’ storage facilities. Get your market update here:https://t.co/VOqfkBQ4aR https://t.co/OsaphmqEmu
  • Are recent gains in the Indian Rupee and Nifty 50 warranted? Risks are brewing in the background, leaving USD/INR in a consolidative setting as the Nifty pressures resistance. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/svDaSdprvN https://t.co/kgddX1ZHe4
  • I approve of this dry humor. https://t.co/b42GmIZDlL
GBP/USD Eyes ‘Flash Crash’ Low Ahead of U.K. Budget Statement

GBP/USD Eyes ‘Flash Crash’ Low Ahead of U.K. Budget Statement

2016-11-18 16:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Weakness Reflects Shift in Market Behavior as 2016 Bull-Trend Cracks.

- GBP/USD Eyes “Flash Crash’ Low as Near-Term Range Buckles Ahead of U.K. Budget Statement.

DailyFX Table

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

NZD/USD

0.7021

0.7061

0.7001

4

60

NZD/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • NZD/USD may continue to carve lower highs & lows in the week ahead as it fails to preserve the bullish trend from earlier this year, and the key development may highlight a further shift in market behavior especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely responds to the downward trend carried over from the summer months; downside targets remain in focus as the pair clears the October low (0.7035).
  • The 0/9% expansion in New Zealand 3Q Retail Sales accompanied by the pickup in factor-gate prices may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record-low of 1.75% at its first 2017 interest-rate decision on February 9, but Governor Graeme Wheeler may keep the door open to further embark on the easing-cycle as the central bank warns ‘numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.
  • Another closing price below 0.7040 (50% retracement) will keep the downside targets in focus, with the next region of interest coming in around 0.6950 (38.2% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6820 (23.6% retracement) to 0.6870 (50% retracement).

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

GBP/USD

1.2312

1.2436

1.2307

105

129

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • GBP/USD may continue to give back the rebound from the British Pound ‘Flash Crash’ as it struggles to preserve the near-term range and threatens the upward trending channel carried over from the previous month; may see a bearish RSI trigger unfold in the week ahead should the oscillator fail to react to trendline support.
  • With market attention turning to the U.K Budget Statement due out on November 23, the fresh projections from Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond may largely track the Bank of England’s (BoE) expectation as the marked depreciation in the exchange rate is expected to fuel ‘inflation overshoot,’ and HM Treasury may be unable to deliver a material fiscal stimulus package amid the growing budget deficit.
  • May see the longer-term bearish trend reassert itself as the relief rebound appears to be getting exhausted, with a close below 1.2360 (50% expansion) opening up the next downside target around 1.2270 (23.6% retracement) followed by 1.2100 (61.8% expansion), with the ‘flash crash’ low (1.1905) on the radar.
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the FX crowd remains net-long since even after the British Pound ‘flash crash,’ with retail sentiment hitting a 2016-extreme of +5.97 during the previous month, while traders have been net-long NZD/USD since November 11.
  • GBP/USD SSI sits at +2.06 as 67% of traders are long, with long positions 13.5% higher from the previous week even as open interest stands 13.2% below the 30-day average.
  • NZD/USD SSI sits at +1.50 as 60% of traders are long, with long positions 32.0% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 5.5% below the monthly average.
  • Will keep a close eye on market participation going into the holiday week, with the less-popular FX pairs at risk of facing whipsaw-like price action on the back of thin liquidity.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

US Dollar Whiplash Ends with a Trump Bump

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: New Trend in Play after 800-Pip, 3-Day Romp

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Pending Trade Talks & U.S. Inflation Weakens CAD

S&P 500 - Bears Got Trumpled, Short-term Trading Levels Noted

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.