Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
EUR/USD Eyes Fresh 2016 High as Retail FX Sits Short, Interest Jumps

EUR/USD Eyes Fresh 2016 High as Retail FX Sits Short, Interest Jumps

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Risks Fresh 2016 High as Retail FX Remains Short, Open Interest Jumps.

- USDOLLAR Bearish Formations Continue to Take Shape; Fed’s William Dudley in Focus.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • With EUR/USD climbing to a fresh monthly high of 1.1363, the near-term series of higher highs & lows may spur a further advance in the exchange rate, which may open up the broad range from 2015.
  • With the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) anticipated to show an uptick in the core rate of inflation, the single-currency may show a bullish reaction to the report as limit’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to implement more non-standard measures in 2016.
  • Will continue to watch the topside targets for EUR/USD as the pair holds above 1.1090 (50% retracement) to 1.1110 (50% retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1420 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1460 (78.6 retracement).
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 10, with the ratio working its way back towards recent extremes as it slipped below -2.00 earlier this month.
  • The ratio currently sits at -1.49 as 40% of traders are long, with short positions increasing 15.0% from the previous week, while open interest stands 13.1% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11895.7311919.9411867.8-0.1782.82%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The near-term series of lower highs & lows accompanied by the bearish formation in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may lead to a further decline in the USDOLLAR as the dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen drags on interest-rate expectations.
  • Despite the 200K print for ADP Employment, central bank rhetoric may continue to drive market volatility as New York Fed President William Dudley, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to speak ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
  • Downside targets remain in focus for the USDOLLAR with a close below 11,898 (50% retracement) raising the risk for a more meaningful run at 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement).

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Read More:

GBP/USD - Brexit Odds Repricing

EUR/USD – The Abyss Hopefully Leads to Clarity

COT-Small Trader Net Long Position in AUD is Largest Since July 2014

USD/JPY-More at the 110.66 Low Than You Might Think

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.