Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
EUR Breaks Range on Greek Hopes- Relief Bounce at Risk on Dovish ECB

EUR Breaks Range on Greek Hopes- Relief Bounce at Risk on Dovish ECB

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Retail FX Remains Net-Short Despite Growing Optimism for Greek Deal.

- GBP/USD Threatens Bearish Momentum Ahead of Key U.K. Data, BoE Governor Carney Speech.

- USDOLLAR Retains Bullish Formation Ahead of Fed’s Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD may face a more meaningful relief bounce amid growing hopes for a Greek deal, but the long-term outlook remains bearish amid the divergence in the monetary policy outlook.
  • European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to retain its pledge to fully-implement its quantitative easing (QE) program, but the single currency remains at risk of facing additional headwinds in the week ahead should President Mario Draghi adopt a more dovish tone this time around.
  • Despite the narrowing risk of a monetary union breakup, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio coming off of recent extremes to hold at -1.86.


GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • Positive developments coming out of the Euro-Zone, the U.K.’s largest trading partner, may keep the Bank of England (BoE) on course to normalize monetary policy; will keep a close eye on the fresh commentary from Governor Mark Carney due out next week as the central bank head continues to anticipate a stronger recovery in the second-half of 2015.
  • Despite market expectations for a further slowdown in the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI), stickiness in the core rate of inflation paired with another expansion in wage growth may boost the appeal of the sterling as the BoE prepares households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs.
  • A break of the bearish RSI momentum may produce a further advance in the days ahead amid the failed attempt to break/close below 1.5330 (78.6% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

USD/JPY - Almost Out of the Woods?The Weekly Volume Report: High Turnover Euro Capitulation

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11955.6711977.3211918.25-0.17100.72%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue track higher next week amid expectations for another increase U.S. Retail Sales, while the CPI is projected to grow an annualized 0.2% after holding flat in May.
  • However, the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony with Fed Chair Janet Yellen may dampen the appeal of the greenback should the central bank head show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle.
  • Nevertheless, will continue to watch the June high (12,043) as USDOLLAR retains the upward trend from mid-June, with 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) seen as near-term support.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.