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  • NZD/USD takes out the September high (0.7170) as it extends the advance following the kneejerk reaction to the US consumer Price Index (CPI). Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/QtOtKrJ7X2 https://t.co/0ZP406evUS
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  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.68% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.57% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.45% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.22% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.16% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/s6QjvuMoVM
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  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.66% Gold: 0.67% Oil - US Crude: 0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/vFDDklTKD3
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  • The FTSE 100 index of leading London-listed stocks is in a good position to climb further, helped by Wall Street strength. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/DMsdDCgvLr https://t.co/CAdKQ1ENwv
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NZD/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored on Bearish Formation

NZD/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored on Bearish Formation

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long Despite Bearish Formation.

- USD/CAD Topside Targets Favored as Pair Clears June High (1.2562).

- USDOLLAR Triangle/Wedge Formation in Focus Going Into Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • NZD/USD remains at risk for a further decline as price & RSI retain the bearish formations; keeping a close eye at channel support along with the Fibonacci overlap coming in around 0.6690 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6710 (78.6% expansion).
  • Despite expectations for a back-to-back rate cut at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) July 22 meeting, the forward-guidance for monetary policy is likely to have a larger impact on NZD/USD as market participants speculation the duration of the fresh easing cycle.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail traders remain net-long NZD/USD since May 19, with the ratio still holding near extremes as it sits at +3.17.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD appears to be resuming the long-term bullish trend as it clears the May high (1.2562) and breaks out of the triangle/wedge formation carried over from March; looking for a closing price above 1.2540-50 (23.6% retracement) for conviction/confirmation.
  • Will continue to watch the relationship between oil & the Canadian dollar, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout 2015 amid the ongoing mixed batch of data coming out of the economy.
  • Next topside region of interest comes in around 1.2620 (50% retracement) to 1.2640 (78.6% retracement).

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Read More:

Price & Time: USDOLLAR Clear As Mud

USD/CAD on Cusp of Breakout as EUR/USD Retreats

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11902.54

11908.02

11849.96

0.39

89.33%

NZD/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored on Bearish FormationUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the bullish reaction in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar to the better-than-expected ADP Employment & ISM Manufacturing survey, the greenback may continue to consolidate in the days ahead as it remains stuck in the triangle/wedge formation from April.
  • Even though market participants anticipate another 230K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) along with a downtick in the jobless rate, may need a very strong employment report to spur a breaking in the USDOLLAR as market participants continue to mull the Fed liftoff.
  • Lack of momentum to close above near-term resistance around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) may continue to produce range-bound prices going into the first full-week of July.

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NZD/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored on Bearish Formation

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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