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USD/JPY Bullish Formation Favored Despite Overbought RSI Signal

USD/JPY Bullish Formation Favored Despite Overbought RSI Signal

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Topside Targets Remain Favored as RSI Pushes Deeper Into Overbought.

- USD/CAD Breakout Starts to Materialize Ahead of Canada 1Q GDP Report.

- USDOLLAR Resilience Continues as Fed Officials Highlight 2015 Liftoff.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY remains at a risk for a further advance amid the ongoing series of higher highs & lows in price, with the next topside target coming in around 124.80 (100% expansion); need the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to slip back below 70 to look for a near-term correction.
  • A marked slowdown in Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may have a limited impact on the exchange rate, but may put increased pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to further expand its asset-purchase program as the central bank pledges to achieve the 2% target for inflation in fiscal year 2016.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has flipped back to net-long USD/JPY on May 27 as the ratio currently stands at +1.06.


USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD faces a growing risk for a breakout as it threatens the triangle/wedge formation carried over from March; will keep a close eye on the RSI as it approaches overbought territory.
  • Even though Canada’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show the economy expanding an annualized 0.3%, a marked slowdown may further dampen the appeal of the loonie as the Bank of Canada (BoC) sticks to its wait-and-see approach.
  • Close above 1.2480 (61.8% retracement) paired with a break of the consolidation phase may open up the door for a move into 1.2620 (50% retracement) to 1.2640 (78.6% retracement).

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12010.9812025.3911954.190.37104.09%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The near-term resilience in Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to take shape over the remainder of the week as it continues to carve a bullish formation; seeing increased expectations for Fed liftoff in September.
  • Despite expectations for a meaningful downward revision in the U.S. 1Q GDP report, market participants may show a muted reaction to an in-line print as San Francisco Fed President John William, a voting-member on the 2015 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), endorses a rate hike in 2015.
  • Close above the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) will bring up 12,049 (78.6% retracement).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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