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USD/CAD Congestion Ahead- AUD/USD Support at Risk on Dismal China PMI

USD/CAD Congestion Ahead- AUD/USD Support at Risk on Dismal China PMI

David Song,

Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Stalls Ahead of 1.2800 Resistance as Canada GDP Beats Market Forecast.

- AUD/USD 0.7580 Support Zone Vulnerable to Slowing China Manufacturing.

- USDOLLAR Pares Gains Despite Jump in Consumer Confidence- ADP, ISM Manufacturing in Focus.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/CAD fails to test the 1.2800 resistance zone as Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report beats market expectations; key support stands around 1.2390 (161.8% retracement) to 1.2420 (161.8% expansion).
  • May continue to face range-bound prices as the Bank of Canada (BoC) endorses a wait-and-see approach, while the bearish RSI momentum continues to take shape.
  • After flipping last week, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short USD/CAD going into April, with the ratio currently standing at -1.19.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • String of closes above the 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) may continue to produce range-bound prices in AUD/USD; outlook remains mired amid growing speculation for another rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) April 7 policy meeting.
  • At the same time, a further slowdown in China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Australian dollar.
  • Break/close below the near-term support zone would expose the next downside target around 0.7490-0.7500 especially as the RSI fails to retain the bullish momentum from earlier this month.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Quarter-end Driving USD Or Something More?

Scalp Webinar: USD Defends Support Slope- Bulls at Risk Ahead of NFP

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12058.6812081.3312032.560.1754.32%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Growing evidence that the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index has carved out a higher-low in March as the RSI threatens the bearish formation; may see fresh highs as the ascending channel formation remains in play.
  • Will keep a close eye on the ADP Employment report & the ISM Manufacturing survey as it may shape market expectations for the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
  • With the USDOLLAR approaching 12,052 (23.6% retracement), a close above 12,082 (61.8% expansion) may spur a more meaningful run at 12,176 (78.6% expansion).

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ReleaseGMTExpectedActual
ISM Milwaukee (MAR)13:0051.5053.25
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City s.a. (MoM) (JAN)13:000.65%0.87%
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City (YoY) (JAN)13:004.60%4.56%
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index (MoM) (JAN)13:00--0.57%
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index (YoY) (JAN)13:00--4.47%
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index n.s.a. (JAN)13:00--166.66
Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (MAR)13:4551.746.3
Consumer Confidence (MAR)14:0096.4101.3

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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