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AUD/USD Retail FX Flips Net-Long; March Low (0.7559) on Radar

AUD/USD Retail FX Flips Net-Long; March Low (0.7559) on Radar

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Fails to Retain Bullish Momentum- Eyes Monthly Low (0.7559) Ahead of RBA.

- USD/CAD Continues to Come Off of Key Support Despite Rising Canadian Input Costs.

- USDOLLAR Rebound Gathers Pace on Stick PCE Inflation- Fed Rhetoric in Focus.

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD may have carved a near-term top amid the string of failed attempts to close above 0.7890, while the RSI struggles to retain the bullish structure.
  • Will continue to watch the 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) region for near-term support, especially on a close-basis.
  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) heading into the end of the month, with the retail crowd turning net-long AUD/USD following the Sunday open, with the ratio currently sitting at +1.28.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • Will continue to watch the broader range for USD/CAD as the pair continues to come off the 1.2390 (161.8% expansion) to 1.2420 (161.8% expansion) support zone, with the 1.2800 region in focus.
  • Despite the neutral tone laid out by Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz, a contraction in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the loonie as it drags on interest rate expectations even though the Industrial Produce Price Index and Raw Material Price Index highlight rising input costs.
  • Close above 1.2650 (38.2% retracement) should bring up the 1.2720 region (23.6% retracement), but need a break of the bearish RSI momentum to favor fresh highs.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Big Week For Stocks?

AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12044.3512051.9811977.340.5583.05%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index looks as though its ready to resume the long-term bullish trend as it attempts to breakout of the consolidation phase; waiting for a topside break in the RSI for confirmation/conviction.
  • Despite forecasts for another 250K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), will keep a very close eye on the slew of Fed commentary lined up this week (Stanley Fischer, Jeffrey Lacker, Dennis Lockhart, Loretta Mester, Esther George, John Williams Janet Yellen, Lael Brainard and Narayana Kocherlakota) as there appears to be a growing dissent amongst the 2015 voting-members.
  • Break/close above 12,052 (23.6% retracement) may produce a more meaningful run at 12,176 (78.6% expansion) especially if data supports expectations for a mid-2015 rate hike.

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ReleaseGMTExpectedActual
Personal Income (FEB)12:300.3%0.4%
Personal Spending (FEB)12:300.2%0.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflation (MoM) (FEB)12:300.2%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflation (YoY) (FEB)12:300.3%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (FEB)12:300.1%0.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (FEB)12:301.3%1.4%
Pending Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)10:000.3%3.1%
Pending Home Sales n.s.a (YoY) (FEB)10:008.7%12.0%
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (MAR)10:30-8.8

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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