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GBP/USD 1.4700 Support Vulnerable as Bearish Momentum Takes Shape

GBP/USD 1.4700 Support Vulnerable as Bearish Momentum Takes Shape

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Slips to Fresh Lows Ahead of BoE Minutes, Budget Statement.

- USD/CAD Clears 1.2800 Resistance Ahead of Canada CPI- 1.2940 Up Next?

- USDOLLAR Resilience Continues Despite Mixed Data- FOMC Meeting Takes Center Stage.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD appears to be catching near-term support around 1.4700-10 (78.6% expansion), but the pair remains at risk for a further decline as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips into oversold territory.
  • Beyond the U.K. Budget Statement, the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes may undermine the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound should Governor Mark Carney stay on course to normalize monetary policy over the near to medium-term.
  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) as retail crowd turns increasingly net-long GBP/USD, with the ratio now trading up at +2.28.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • Despite the limited market reaction to the mixed Canadian Employment report, USD/CAD clears the 1.2800 resistance zone; favor the approach to ‘buy-dis’ as the bullish formation on the RSI takes shape.
  • Even though the RBNZ retains the verbal intervention on the kiwi, NZD/USD may face a larger correction as Governor Graeme Wheeler argues that New Zealand remains in a different situation to those who are cutting interest rates.
  • Close above the 1.2800 handle may open up the door for a move into the next topside region of interest at 1.2940-50 (50% expansion).

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Read More:

The Weekly Volume Report: Euro Volume Spike A Negative?

USD Shaking Off Selloff? USD/CAD Breakout in Flux

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12124.7812145.2512065.250.48136.28%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar rallies to fresh highs despite the slew of mixed data prints; will continue to favor greenback strength as long as the RSI holds in overbought territory.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) March 18 policy meeting takes center stage as we will get the updated economic/interest rate projections and the press conference with Chair Janet Yellen.
  • Bullish RSI momentum continues to favor the approach to ‘buy dips’ going into the FOMC, with the next topside region of interest coming in around 12,176 (78.6% expansion), but may see positon-adjustments ahead of the interest rate decision given the extreme readings.

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ReleaseGMTExpectedActual
Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)12:300.3%-0.5%
Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)12:300.0%-0.6%
Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (FEB)12:300.1%-0.5%
Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (FEB)12:301.6%1.0%
Producer Price Index ex Food, Energy and Trade (MoM) (FEB)12:300.1%0.0%
Producer Price Index ex Food, Energy and Trade (YoY) (FEB)12:300.8%0.7%
U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)14:0095.591.2

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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