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  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:
  • Speculative stubbornness continues to hold back emergent fears like inflation and central bank moderation, but no certain of progress on that battle this week. While $NDX, $BTCUSD and Pound are on my radar, #Dollar tops my watch list:
  • AUD/USD remains range-bound but trend potential exists elsewhere in pairs such as AUD/JPY or AUD/CAD. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • What are some technical and fundamental factors affecting the equities market? Get your free forecast here: #DailyFXGuides
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may drag on the price of gold as the central bank appears to be in no rush to switch gears. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here:
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AUD/USD Bearish Momentum Favors Downside Targets- 0.7500 on Radar

AUD/USD Bearish Momentum Favors Downside Targets- 0.7500 on Radar

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Fails to Benefit From Sticky China CPI- Australia Home Loans to Contract.

- USD/CAD Breakout Favors Topside Targets Ahead of Canada Employment Report.

- USDOLLAR Post NFP Rally Gathers Pace Ahead of Fed Stress Test.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.


AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the stickiness in China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), AUD/USD remains at risk for a further decline as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to retain the bullish momentum from the previous month.
  • A dip below 30 in the RSI may open up the downside targets, with a break below/close 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) exposing the 0.7500 handle (61.8% expansion).
  • Despite the fresh monthly lows in AUD/USD, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has turned net-long on March 9, with the ratio currently standing at +1.03.


USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • Close above 1.2630 will reinforce the approach to ‘buy dips’ in USD/CAD as it breaks out of the triangle/wedge formation, while the RSI clears the bearish momentum.
  • Canada’s Employment report remains the key event risk for the loonie as the economy is expected to shed 5.0K jobs in February, while the jobless rate is projected to increase to 6.7% from 6.6% during the same period.
  • Next key topside objective comes in around 1.2797 (January high) to 1.2800 (38.2% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

COT-Australian and Canadian Dollars are the Most One Sided

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Trends Firm; EUR/JPY, USD/CAD Test Breakout Levels

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






AUD/USD Bearish Momentum Favors Downside Targets- 0.7500 on RadarUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar post-NFP rally may accelerate as the RSI pushes deeper into overbought territory; need the oscillator to fall back below 70 to look for a near-term pullback.
  • Will keep a close eye on the Fed’s Stress Test results, but may see USDOLLAR strength persist ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 18 as market participants raise bets for a mid-2015 rate hike.
  • Close above 11,997 (100% expansion) to 12,001 (78.6% expansion) may generate a more meaningful run at 12,073 (100% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!





NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB)




Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (JAN)



Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JAN)



JOLTS Job Openings (JAN)



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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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