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Retail FX Remains Net Short EUR/USD- USD/JPY Break Out?

Retail FX Remains Net Short EUR/USD- USD/JPY Break Out?

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Range in Focus Ahead of Eurogroup Meeting on Greece.

- USD/JPY Threatens Triangle/Wedge Formation Even as SPX500 Remains Capped.

- USDOLLAR Remains Capped by Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Retail Sales Report.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD looks poised to retain the range-bound price action ahead of the Eurogroup meeting as Greece struggles to secure a near-term resolution.
  • Need a break & close above/below the current range for conviction; long-term outlook remains bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum dating back to October 2013.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD ahead of the meeting, but the ratio has come off of recent extremes as it currently holds at -1.52.


USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY threatens the wedge/triangle formation as it ran up to a fresh monthly high of 119.61; need a close above 119.00-10 for conviction/confirmation for a bullish break.
  • Cautious on the move in USD/JPY as SPX500 preserves the range-bound price action & remains capped by 2064-2070.
  • Next topside target comes in around 119.60 (23.6% retracement) to 119.80 (100% expansion), but will keep a close eye on Japan’s 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as market participants look for a meaningful rebound in economic activity.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Early Downside Resumption in EUR/USD?

DailyFX Technical Focus: 2/10/2015

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11828.4311853.2711804.090.0471.46%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar monthly opening range remains in focus ahead of the Advance Retail Sales report, which is expected to show private consumption contraction for the second consecutive month.
  • Even though Fed officials anticipate lower energy prices to boost disposable incomes, may see the central bank adopt a more cautious tone as household spending falters.
  • Will keep a close eye on former resistance zones, with the first area of interest standing at 11,721 (38.2% expansion).

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NFIB Small Business Optimism (JAN)14:00101.097.9
Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (DEC)15:000.2% 0.1%
Wholesale Sales (MoM) (DEC)15:00-0.3% -0.4%
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (FEB)15:0051.9 47.5
JOLTS Job Openings (DEC)15:004990 5028

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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