Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Range in Focus Ahead of Eurogroup Meeting on Greece.
- USD/JPY Threatens Triangle/Wedge Formation Even as SPX500 Remains Capped.
- USDOLLAR Remains Capped by Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Retail Sales Report.
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Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- EUR/USD looks poised to retain the range-bound price action ahead of the Eurogroup meeting as Greece struggles to secure a near-term resolution.
- Need a break & close above/below the current range for conviction; long-term outlook remains bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum dating back to October 2013.
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD ahead of the meeting, but the ratio has come off of recent extremes as it currently holds at -1.52.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY threatens the wedge/triangle formation as it ran up to a fresh monthly high of 119.61; need a close above 119.00-10 for conviction/confirmation for a bullish break.
- Cautious on the move in USD/JPY as SPX500 preserves the range-bound price action & remains capped by 2064-2070.
- Next topside target comes in around 119.60 (23.6% retracement) to 119.80 (100% expansion), but will keep a close eye on Japan’s 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as market participants look for a meaningful rebound in economic activity.
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Read More:
Price & Time: Early Downside Resumption in EUR/USD?
DailyFX Technical Focus: 2/10/2015
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
| Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11828.43 | 11853.27 | 11804.09 | 0.04 | 71.46% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar monthly opening range remains in focus ahead of the Advance Retail Sales report, which is expected to show private consumption contraction for the second consecutive month.
- Even though Fed officials anticipate lower energy prices to boost disposable incomes, may see the central bank adopt a more cautious tone as household spending falters.
- Will keep a close eye on former resistance zones, with the first area of interest standing at 11,721 (38.2% expansion).
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| Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFIB Small Business Optimism (JAN) | 14:00 | 101.0 | 97.9 |
| Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (DEC) | 15:00 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Wholesale Sales (MoM) (DEC) | 15:00 | -0.3% | -0.4% |
| IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (FEB) | 15:00 | 51.9 | 47.5 |
| JOLTS Job Openings (DEC) | 15:00 | 4990 | 5028 |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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