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Retail FX Remains Net Short EUR/USD- USD/JPY Break Out?

Retail FX Remains Net Short EUR/USD- USD/JPY Break Out?

2015-02-10 17:10:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Range in Focus Ahead of Eurogroup Meeting on Greece.

- USD/JPY Threatens Triangle/Wedge Formation Even as SPX500 Remains Capped.

- USDOLLAR Remains Capped by Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Retail Sales Report.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD looks poised to retain the range-bound price action ahead of the Eurogroup meeting as Greece struggles to secure a near-term resolution.
  • Need a break & close above/below the current range for conviction; long-term outlook remains bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum dating back to October 2013.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD ahead of the meeting, but the ratio has come off of recent extremes as it currently holds at -1.52.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY threatens the wedge/triangle formation as it ran up to a fresh monthly high of 119.61; need a close above 119.00-10 for conviction/confirmation for a bullish break.
  • Cautious on the move in USD/JPY as SPX500 preserves the range-bound price action & remains capped by 2064-2070.
  • Next topside target comes in around 119.60 (23.6% retracement) to 119.80 (100% expansion), but will keep a close eye on Japan’s 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as market participants look for a meaningful rebound in economic activity.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Early Downside Resumption in EUR/USD?

DailyFX Technical Focus: 2/10/2015

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11828.43

11853.27

11804.09

0.04

71.46%

Retail FX Remains Net Short EUR/USD- USD/JPY Break Out?USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar monthly opening range remains in focus ahead of the Advance Retail Sales report, which is expected to show private consumption contraction for the second consecutive month.
  • Even though Fed officials anticipate lower energy prices to boost disposable incomes, may see the central bank adopt a more cautious tone as household spending falters.
  • Will keep a close eye on former resistance zones, with the first area of interest standing at 11,721 (38.2% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

NFIB Small Business Optimism (JAN)

14:00

101.0

97.9

Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (DEC)

15:00

0.2%

0.1%

Wholesale Sales (MoM) (DEC)

15:00

-0.3%

-0.4%

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (FEB)

15:00

51.9

47.5

JOLTS Job Openings (DEC)

15:00

4990

5028

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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