News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/yy0FTn9Pnp
  • Anti-fiat #gold prices suffered the worst week since August as the US Dollar gained ground. Will losses extend? All eyes turn to fiscal stimulus hopes and non-farm payrolls data. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/054CJvOWw4 https://t.co/BzODShHmqH
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/me8wMRpJjE
  • What is seasonal change in volatility. Are we going through one right now? Find out: https://t.co/G0qfpOmMl2 https://t.co/HXCQzUQgxA
  • The US Dollar will be bracing for a cascade of political risks including the first presidential debate, ongoing stimulus talks, the Supreme Court vacancy against the backdrop of key employment data. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/quU4MmUjxA https://t.co/jF6ubwRz1P
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/PfIVibmqn1
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/lKvEMf4QRe
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/GGVrB3r7if https://t.co/HPHUC8EG3o
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/q80wSAoxXP
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/7mc19Gxrvm
Euro Eyeing Eurozone Confidence Data Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

Euro Eyeing Eurozone Confidence Data Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

2019-07-22 06:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

EURO, EUROZONE CONFIDENCE DATA, ECB RATE DECISION– TALKING POINTS

  • Eurozone confidence data may reinforce narrative of need for ECB rate cuts
  • Economic reports out of the Eurozone have been tending to underperform
  • ECB rate decision, commentary may push EURUSD below critical support

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

Euro traders will be closely watching the release of Eurozone confidence data ahead of this week’s ECB rate decision. Volatility may be relatively low upon the release as investors are probably feeling hesitant in committing capital prior to the central bank’s decision and outlook. The utility in the data lies in the fact that a worsened or at-forecast print will say a lot about consumers’ outlook and the impact it may have on growth.

When consumers are more optimistic about the future, their spending habits become more aggressive because they believe the purchases they make will not put them in a financially precarious place. However, if confidence is low due to a gloomy outlook ahead, purchasers may curtail their spending in anticipation of hard times ahead and may favor a higher saving-to-spending ratio.

Likely by no sheer coincidence, Eurozone year-on-year retail sales data is now at its weakest point since January, and consumer confidence is currently pegged at -7.2. The ECB has acknowledged that risks and inflation have been tilted to the downside in light of Brexit and slower global growth against the backdrop of the US-China trade war. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 49 percent probability of a cut this week.

This is drastically increased to a 91 percent chance of a cut by the September meeting. Sign up for our live webinar covering the ECB rate decision!

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

After briefly touching resistance at 1.1275 (yellow dotted line), EURUSD subsequently retreated and is now timidly hovering above 18-month former-resistance-turned-support (red channel). Barring any sudden major developments, EURUSD may not make any major moves until the ECB rate decision. The fundamental outlook suggests the pair will capitulate and trade below the channel and the ECB may be the catalyst for it.

CHART OF THE DAY: EURUSD CAPITULATION MAY HINGE ON ECB RATE DECISION, OUTLOOK

Chart Showing EURUSD

EURSUD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES