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  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year)
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
  • There is a ridiculous number of scheduled Fed speeches on the docket next week. Powell specifically will be speaking multiple times including at an ECB hosted forum on central banking (which also has a panel with Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ heads)
  • USD Ascending Triangle, Bullish for Q4 - #DXY chart on @TradingView
Yen and US Dollar May Rise Further on OECD Outlook, BOC Rate Call

Yen and US Dollar May Rise Further on OECD Outlook, BOC Rate Call

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Yen, US Dollar rise as most G10 FX splits along risk on/off divide
  • Aussie Dollar suffers outsized losses on GDP data, dovish Lowe
  • OECD outlook update, BOC rate call may sustain defensive tone

Most currency market price action appeared to be divided along sentiment lines in Asia Pacific trade, even as regional stocks turned in a mixed performance. The anti-risk Japanese Yen and US Dollar traded broadly higher while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars suffered outsized losses.

The Aussie was particularly weak in the wake of disappointing GDP data as well as pointedly dovish comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe. He said it is “hard to see a scenario where rates rise this year,” adding that it is unlikely that inflation will be a problem any time soon.

The British Pound diverged from the risk on/off dynamic. It traded lower following a Reuters report saying that Brexit talks between EU and UK negotiators failed to reach a deal on Tuesday. Talks in Brussels are set to resume today.


Looking ahead, an updated economic outlook from the OECD and a policy decision from the Bank of Canada are in focus. The former may echo recent downgrades from similar entities like the IMF and World Bank. The latter might take a similarly downbeat view, echoing recent weakness in local and US data flow.

Taken together, these might offer fresh fodder to building concerns about global economic slowdown, cooling risk appetite. In fact, bellwether S&P 500 are pointing tellingly lower, perhaps in anticipation of just such an outcome. If it materializes, APAC-session G10 FX price moves might find scope for follow-through.

What are we trading? See the DailyFX team’s top trade ideas for 2019 and find out!


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** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.