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US Dollar at Risk on Soft Data But Risk Aversion May Cap Losses

US Dollar at Risk on Soft Data But Risk Aversion May Cap Losses

2016-05-04 04:54:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar falls with Asian shares, Yen retreats from 19-month high
  • Soft ISM, ADP figures may weigh against Fed rate hike speculation
  • S&P 500 futures hint risk aversion may limit US Dollar weakness

The Japanese Yen and the New Zealand Dollar faced selling pressure in overnight trade. The sentiment-sensitive Kiwi tracked Asian share prices lower, tipping risk aversion as the catalyst behind the move. The Australian Dollar managed to hold up better than its New Zealand counterpart, trading little-changed as corrective flows after yesterday’s sharp post-RBA selloff helped offset risk-off pressure.

Meanwhile, the Yen’s losses appeared to reflect a retracement after the currency hit a 19-month high yesterday. The typically anti-risk currency may have managed to diverge from sentiment trends with Japanese markets closed for a holiday.

Looking ahead, a relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to US news-flow. An estimate of payrolls growth from ADP and April’s ISM Non-manufacturing Composite gauge take top billing.

The former is expected to show the economy added 195,000 private sector jobs in April, marking a bit of a slowdown from the 200k gain recorded in the prior month. The latter is projected to reveal that the pace of service-sector activity growth accelerated to the fastest in four months.

US data outcomes have increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts in recent months, opening the door for disappointments. Such outcomes may inform pre-positioning ahead of Friday’s much-anticipated release of official employment figures, weighing on the US Dollar as traders bet that soft data will scatter chances for a Fed rate hike next month.

Continued risk aversion may offer a lifeline to the greenback however. The benchmark unit reclaimed its safe-haven credentials yesterday, pushing broadly higher against the majors as stocks declined. S&P 500 futures are pointing meaningfully lower overnight, warning that more of the same may cap data-inspired USD weakness.

Are markets matching DailyFX analysts’ 2Q forecasts? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate (1Q)

5.7%

5.5%

5.4%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)

1.2%

0.6%

1.0%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)

2.0%

1.3%

1.4%

22:45

NZD

Participation Rate (1Q)

69.0%

68.6%

68.5%

22:45

NZD

Pvt Wages Ex Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)

0.4%

0.3%

0.4%

22:45

NZD

Pvt Wages Inc Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)

0.4%

0.3%

0.4%

22:45

NZD

Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)

0.3%

0.5%

0.2%

23:00

USD

Fed's Lockhart Speaks to World Affairs Council

-

-

-

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (APR)

-1.7%

-1.7%

-1.7%

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Services Index (APR)

49.7

-

49.5

0:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)

12.0%

-

11.4%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (APR)

-0.8%

-

-1.3%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (1Q)

-

1.41

Low

6:45

EUR

France Trade Balance (MAR)

-4200m

-5177m

Low

6:45

EUR

France Current Account Balance (MAR)

-

-3.9b

Low

7:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (APR)

51.9

51.2

Low

7:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (APR)

-

52.4

Low

7:50

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (APR F)

50.8

50.8

Low

7:50

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (APR F)

50.5

50.5

Low

7:55

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (APR F)

54.6

54.6

Medium

7:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (APR F)

53.8

53.8

Medium

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (APR F)

53.2

53.2

Medium

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (APR F)

53.0

53.0

Medium

8:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (APR)

54.0

54.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

-0.1%

0.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

2.6%

2.4%

Medium

10:15

EUR

ECB's Weidmann Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1296

1.1416

1.1457

1.1536

1.1577

1.1656

1.1776

GBP/USD

1.4129

1.4370

1.4453

1.4611

1.4694

1.4852

1.5093

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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