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US Dollar May Extend Gains as Fed Minutes Foreshadow Rate Hike

US Dollar May Extend Gains as Fed Minutes Foreshadow Rate Hike

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Find Fuel for Further Gains on Hawkish Fed Meeting Minutes
  • Euro, Pound Eye Central Bank Commentary to Inform On-Coming Policy Bets
  • Track Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours will put the spotlight on minutes from October’s FOMC meeting. The policy announcement seemed decidedly hawkish and markets interpreted it as such, with the US Dollar soaring and Fed Funds futures shifting to put the priced-in probability of a December rate hike in the 60-70 percent range.Subsequent commentary from Fed officials likewise leaned in favor of late-2015 “liftoff”. More of the same in the Minutes document may bolster imminent tightening bets, pushing the greenback upward.

On the scheduled official commentary front, remarks from the ECB’s Yves Mersch and the BOE’s Ben Broadbent are on the docket. Traders will comb rhetoric for clues about the mechanics of on-coming stimulus expansion by the Eurozone central bank and the expected tightening timeline of the UK one. Comments suggesting the ECB might adopt a restrained approach – such as expanding the spectrum of QE-eligible assets – could push the Euro upward. Alternatively, hints at an increase in the size of monthly purchases or a cut in the deposit rate may weigh on the single currency. As for the UK, the time needed to get past disinflation imported via low oil prices and a strong exchange rate is likely to be critical.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

23:00AUDConf. Board Leading Index (MoM) (SEP)-0.1%--0.4%
23:30AUDWestpac Leading Index (MoM) (OCT)0.1%-0.1%
00:30AUDWage Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)0.6%0.6%0.6%
00:30AUDWage Price Index (YoY) (3Q)2.3%2.3%2.3%
01:30CNYChina Property Prices (OCT) ---

European Session

08:00EURECB's Mersch Speaks in Frankfurt --Medium
09:00GBPBOE’s Broadbent Gives Speech --Medium
10:00EUREurozone Construction Output (MoM) (SEP)--0.2%Low
10:00EUREurozone Construction Output (YoY) (SEP)--6.0%Low
10:00CHFCredit Suisse ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV)-18.3Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.