0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Malaysian #Ringgit fell today after Malaysian Q2 GDP contracted -17.1% y/y (vs -10.9% expected) This leaves $USDMYR closer towards facing key resistance above Dominant outlook remains bearish however, check out this week's #ASEAN tech outlook here - https://t.co/yR4bEV3NCe https://t.co/xjPPs3RD5D
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/S9CEcB4urE https://t.co/XhXvSI8ECM
  • 🇯🇵 Tertiary Industry Index MoM (JUN) Actual: 7.9% Previous: -2.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Tertiary Industry Index MoM (JUN) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -2.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Multiple time frame analysis follows a top down approach when trading and allows traders to gauge the longer-term trend while spotting ideal entries on a smaller time frame chart. Learn how to incorporate multiple time frame analysis here: https://t.co/HnzQcAXWLU https://t.co/nRLUAAEc7t
  • #EURUSD may be forming a Head and Shoulders top on the daily chart. Confirmation on a break of neckline support may open the door for a break toward the 1.15 figure. https://t.co/iXOwXxCEjc
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3FsnNdo7VK https://t.co/lC69rPbkcJ
  • $AUDUSD just weakened slightly following disappointing Chinese industrial production and retail sales data What is the Aussie facing over the next 24 hours and heading into next week? #AUD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/08/14/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Eyes-SP-500-Retail-Sales-After-Chinese-Data.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/b9pmxMkp8o
  • 🇨🇳 Unemployment Rate (JUL) Actual: 5.7% Previous: 5.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY (JUL) Actual: -1.6% Expected: -1.6% Previous: -3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
USD/CAD to Extend Bullish Pattern on Dismal Canada GDP Report

USD/CAD to Extend Bullish Pattern on Dismal Canada GDP Report

2016-08-31 08:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

- Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Contract for First Time Since 2Q 2015.

- 1.5% Contraction Would Mark Biggest Slowdown Since 2Q 2009.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Canada’s 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may drag on the loonie and fuel the near-term advance in USD/CAD as the economy is expected to contract 1.5% following the 2.4% expansion during the first three-months of 2016.

What’s Expected:

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

A dismal GDP report may encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further support the real economy as the region continues to adjust to the oil-price shock, but the one-off event spurred by the Alberta wildfires may have a limited impact on the monetary policy outlook as Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. argue ‘the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced.’

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

0.5%

-0.1%

Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)

1.5%

-5.5%

Net Change in Employment (JUN)

5.0K

-0.7K

Easing job growth accompanied by the slowdown in private-sector consumption may spark a sharp contraction in the growth rate, and a dismal GDP report may trigger further losses in the Canadian dollar as it drags on interest-rate expectations.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Ivey Purchasing Manager Index (JUN)

51.2

51.7

BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey (2Q)

--

23.9

CFIB Business Barometer (JUN)

--

60.0

Nevertheless, the pickup in business sentiment paired with signs of stronger investment may generate a better-than-expected GDP print, and a positive development may spur a bullish reaction in the loonie as it raises the BoC’s scope to retain the current policy throughout 2016.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish CAD Trade: Growth Rate Contracts Annualized 1.5% or Greater

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on USD/CAD.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish loonie trade, buy USD/CAD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bullish CAD Trade: Canada 2Q GDP Exceeds Market Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short USD/CAD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD may work its way back to the July high (1.3253) as it carves a near-term series of higher highs & lows following the Fed Economic Symposium, all while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from the end of July; next hurdle comes in around 1.3130 (38.2% retracement) followed by 1.3210 (78.6% expansion).
  • Key Resistance: 1.3560 (100% expansion) to 1.3570 (50% retracement)
  • Key Support: 1.2510 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2520 (38.2% expansion)

Check out the short-term technical levels that matter for USD/CAD heading into the report!

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

Impact that Canada Gross Domestic Product has had on USD/CAD during the last quarter

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

1Q

2016

05/31/2016

12:30 GMT

2.8%

2.4%

+38

+64

1Q 2016 Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

USD/CAD 5-Minute

USD/CAD Chart

The Canadian economy grew an annualized 2.4% in the first-quarter following a revised 0.5% expansion during the last three-months of 2015, with the pickup led by a 2.1% rise in private-sector consumption. A deeper look at the report showed business investment slipped another 1.7% during the same period after contracting 6.0% during the last three-months of 2015, while exports of goods and services advanced 6.9%. The Canadian dollar struggled to hold its ground following the weaker-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, with USD/CAD coming off of 1.3020 to end the day at 1.3091.

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Yellen Sparks Volatility, Market Starts Week at Pivotal Area

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Implied Vol Shows Trader’s Nerves

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Sticking to the Range

EURUSD: Waiting for the Dip & Rip- Key Resistance at 1.1400

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.