EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Sticking to the Range

2016-08-24 18:40:00

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Talking Points:

EUR/JPY Technical Strategy: Longer-term down-trend still intact, near-term range developed over the past three weeks.
EUR/JPY is still near longer-term support values after the out-sized move lower post-Brexit.
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In our last article, we looked at the down-trend in EUR/JPY being at a ‘decision point’ after price action had posed a vigorous bounce off of the prior swing-low. As we noted, the fact that this swing-low came-in higher than the prior swing-low highlighted the down-trend in EUR/JPY may be nearing a reversal as sellers were unable to drive the pair lower. Since then, we’ve seen back-and-forth price action as EUR/JPY has built-in to a fairly consistent range through the month of August (shown below).

Charts prepared by James Stanley

Traders can handle such a scenario in one of two ways; either a) trade the range or b) await the break. For those looking to trade an eventual break of this range, the likely culprits will probably come from Central Bank innuendo, primarily speaking of Japan as the European Central Bank appears to be in somewhat of a holding pattern after their recent increases to their already-outsized stimulus efforts.

For those looking to utilize such an approach, they’d likely want to wait for the range to break before assigning any type of a directional bias to EUR/JPY. On the resistance side for prospective bullish plays, the level of 114.09 could be interesting as this is the 38.2% retracement of the Brexit-move in the pair. And this level has seen quite a few price action inflections, as the previous swing low had caught support off of this level, and the recent range is appearing to resist just shy of the same level.

On the bottom-side of price action in the effort of bearish plays, a longer-term Fibonacci level at the 112.00 area, just below the 23.6% retracement of the Brexit-move, could provide that litmus for setting up short- positions.