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Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Gold Gains Amid Risk Aversion

Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Gold Gains Amid Risk Aversion

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices may follow stocks lower amid broad-based risk aversion
  • Gold prices may advance as souring sentiment weighs against bond yields
  • How are our fourth-quarter commodities forecasts faring? Find out here

Crude oil and gold prices found little impetus for trend development over the past 24 hours, languishing within familiar congestion ranges. Top-tier scheduled event risk is notably absent through the week-end, hinting that sentiment trends may emerge as the central driver of performance.

FTSE 100 and S&P 500 futures are pointing lower before London and New York come online, hinting at a risk-off mood. That might boost gold as capital seek haven in Treasury bonds and weighs on yields, boosting the relative appeal of anti-fiat assets. Sentiment-sensitive oil prices may lose ground however.

Retail traders expect gold to rise. Find out here what this hints about actual price trends!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices remain wedged within a would-be bearish Triangle chart pattern. A daily close below its lower boundaryand the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1272.01 sees the next downside barrier in the 1260.80-61.50 area (October 6 low, 50% level). Alternatively, a move above Triangle resistance – now at 1293.13– exposes the October 16 high at 1306.04.

Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Gold Gains Amid Risk Aversion

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to mark time near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 55.01. A daily close below that exposes the 38.2% levelat 53.21. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% Fib at 56.12 opens the door for a retest of the November 8 high at 57.92.

Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Gold Gains Amid Risk Aversion

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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