News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here -
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your USD/INR market update here:
Crude Oil Prices Drop Despite Inventory Draw, Trump Boosts Gold

Crude Oil Prices Drop Despite Inventory Draw, Trump Boosts Gold

2017-04-13 08:02:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Crude oil prices turned lower alongside share prices as the cycle-sensitive commodity succumbed to market-wide risk aversion. EIA inventory data showing 2.17 million barrels drained out of stockpiles – a larger draw than the 1.5 million barrel result expected by economists – didn’t seem to register on investors’ radar.

Supply trends may return to the forefront as the IEA monthly report crosses the wires, offering insight on the fragile balance between OPEC’s output cut scheme and surging swing output. On the latter front, the Baker Hughes rig count report showing the number of active US extraction sites will add color.

Gold prices marked time for most of the yesterday’s trading session but a late-day surge courtesy of US President Donald Trump pushed them to the highest level in five months. He told the Wall Street Journal that the US Dollar is “getting too strong”, offering a broad-based lift to USD alternatives.

Practically speaking, the President has few tools besides jawboning to unilaterally force the exchange rate in one direction or another. In fact, the central argument of the so-called “Trump trade” is that his expansionary fiscal program will force the Fed to hike rates faster and boost the greenback.

This means that the benchmark currency’s suffering may not prove lasting. The aggressive down move was likely amplified by thinning liquidity ahead of on-coming Easter market closures, so taking the magnitude of the drop as signaling directional conviction is probably premature.

The US PPI report is expected to show core wholesale inflation hit 1.8 percent on-year in March, the highest since December 2014. That may remind investors that robust price growth will see the Fed continue to tighten regardless of the President’s pronouncements, sending the yellow metal lower.

What will drive crude oil prices through mid-year? See our forecast to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices look poised to test above the $1300/oz figure after breaking another layer of chart resistance. A push through the 1302.90-08.00 area (76.4% Fibonacci expansion, former support) exposes the 100% level at 1336.19. Alternatively, a turn back below the 61.8% Fib at 1282.31 paves the way for a retest of the 1263.87-65.66 region (50% expansion, February 27 high).

Crude Oil Prices Drop Despite Inventory Draw, Trump Boosts Gold

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices stalled after touching the highest level in a month, snapping a four-day win streak. From here, a daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 52.04 opens the door for a retest of the 23.6% level at 50.14. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fibat 53.57 exposes the 55.10-21 area (January 3 high, 61.8% expansion).

Crude Oil Prices Drop Despite Inventory Draw, Trump Boosts Gold

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.