Talking Points:
- Crude oil prices continue to rise on production cut hopes
- Gold prices unable to capitalize on soft US economic data
- WTI may correct lower, Fed-driving news flow key ahead
Gold spiked higher after disappointing US retail sales data undermined Fed rate hike bets and sent the US Dollar lower, but the move proved short-lived. The greenback briskly recovered on the back of safe-haven demand as stock prices plunged, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat assets and forcing gold back downward. The metal may continue to languish as traders wait for key event risk shaping Fed timing speculation to cross the wires.
Crude oil prices continued recover. The move appeared to reflect follow-on momentum after Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said last week that an informal meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers next month may lead to collective price stabilization measures.
Looking ahead, a lull in relevant event risk may see the WTI contract correct lower as traders question the likelihood that a supply-side deal at a time when the principal parties to such an agreement – Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia – find themselves on opposing sides of raging geopolitical conflicts. Evidence of returning capacity in the US, where the number of active rigs was reported at a five-month high on Friday, may help pour cold water on hopes that reduced output will boost prices.
Are gold and crude oil prices matching DailyFX analysts’ expectations? Find out here !
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices are struggling to find follow-through after breaking support at a rising trend line set from late May. A daily close below the August 8 low at 1329.79 sees the next downside barrier at 1308.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, a move back above trend line support-turned-resistance – now at 1355.14 – targets the 1367.15-77.74 area (double top, 38.2% Fib expansion).
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices have recovered to the highest level in nearly four weeks. From here a daily close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 45.41 exposes the 61.8% level at 46.88. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 43.94 targets the August 11 low at 41.09.
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
