We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Four-Week Bills Draw 0.125% Primary Dealers Awarded: 44.3% Indirect Bidders Accepted: 53.2% Direct Bidders Accepted: 2.5% B/C Ratio: 2.77
  • ECB policymakers debated PEPP expansion of EUR 500-750bln. Policymakers expressed worries about deviation from capital key - ECB sources
  • Canadian PM Trudeau says updated COVID-19 modeling to be released Thursday, evidence shows virus may be slowing - BBG
  • Florida virus cases increase 2.4% versus prior 7-day average of 1.6% - BBG
  • GBP/USD is easing back Thursday after a week of gains as the June 30 deadline for the UK to ask for an extension of its Brexit transition period approaches. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/ymQqurP9Nw https://t.co/ozMH50KfbQ
  • Hey traders! With @ecb announcing 600bn increase in its PPE program. How is this impacting the markets? Get your market update for today from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/H8q5yz430P
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.84% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.54% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.47% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/lRvWDOlu3j
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.28% US 500: 0.12% France 40: 0.06% Germany 30: -0.21% FTSE 100: -0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/d2SBu9DxXv
  • El #Ibex35 defiende los 7.600 puntos gracias al estímulo ilimitado del #BCE #trading https://t.co/14JmYVr4Q5
  • EUR/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long EUR/JPY since Jan 14 when EUR/JPY traded near 122.23. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to EUR/JPY strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PIrps86vUZ
Gold Prices Surge But US Jobs Data Threatens Follow-Through

Gold Prices Surge But US Jobs Data Threatens Follow-Through

2016-05-02 04:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices break March swing top, challenge resistance near $1300/oz
  • Crude oil prices may reverse downward after signs of indecision emerge
  • US employment data headlines a busy week of pivotal event risk ahead

Gold prices enjoyed strong gains in the final 48 hour of last week’s trade, racing out of a consolidation range broadly in play since mid-March. Critically, the move appeared to be triggered by the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement rather than that of the Federal Reserve.

The metal was little-changed after the US central bank backed away from language highlighting external risks (as we expected) but stopped short of explicitly laying the groundwork for a June rate hike (as it did in November when preparing for post-QE “liftoff” in December). Gold prices jumped only later as US Dollar weakness reverberated across the financial markets from a violent BOJ-inspired drop in USD/JPY.

Japanese financial markets are closed for various holidays for most of this week, which may limit near-term follow-through on last week’s momentum. This may push tertiary catalysts out of the forefront and refocus investors on baseline fundamentals, putting the US Employment report in the spotlight. The outcome ought to be pivotal for rate hike timeline expectations.

Analysts expect a 200k increase in nonfarm payrolls in April – a mild slowdown from the 215k added in March – while the jobless rate holds steady at 5 percent. Equally of note, average hourly earnings are expected to rise at a year-on-year rate of 2.4 percent, making for the first wage inflation increase in four months.

Traders marked down tightening bets after the FOMC signaled an emphasis on domestic matters, with the probability of a June hike falling from 21 to 12 percent. This makes sense: US news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks. This may make markets more sensitive to upbeat results that clash with the established narrative versus the alternative.

In this scenario, a reassessment of near-term Fed stimulus withdrawal probabilities could make the US Dollar appear relatively cheap, particularly given the indirect source of last week’s selloff. This bodes ill for gold amid fizzling anti-fiat demand.

For their part, crude oil prices may follow precious metals downward. A firm correlation between the WTI contract and the MSCI World Stock index speaks of sensitivity to risk appetite trends. If US jobs data reboots fears of on-coming tightening, oil may follow equity prices downward.

Where are gold prices going in the second quarter? See our forecast here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices surged above the March swing high, marking the largest daily advance in over a month and hitting the highest level since January 2015. Near-term resistance is now in the 1294.26-1307.49 area, marked by the January 22, 2015 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close above this barrier exposes the 50% level at 1324.58. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1261.70 opens the door for a test of rising trend line support at 1226.96.

Gold Prices Surge But US Jobs Data Threatens Follow-Through

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Crude oil prices stalled below resistance at 46.01, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A Spinning Top candlestick points to indecision, hinting that upward momentum may be ebbing after the WTI hit a six-month high. This may ultimately prove to have laid the foundation for a reversal lower, although confirmation is decidedly absent for the time being. A move below the 23.6% level at 44.66 exposes the 14.6% Fib at 43.83. Alternatively, a push above resistance targets the 50% expansion at 47.10.

Gold Prices Surge But US Jobs Data Threatens Follow-Through

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.