News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here: https://t.co/D8DXSAdpqC https://t.co/nfiFAlyYXv
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0unrdT https://t.co/mIsVJ4zTbB
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/hymrumanUY
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfs2Iz https://t.co/6dAqxsVfxJ
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Xu3ZT7EtrW https://t.co/5VHKn52MaA
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHq4Np https://t.co/mf9rsmIvaW
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/mYWO0Eta0P
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ZvEMQuFjSs https://t.co/rMmq9cehnY
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/tm4k3IVzHr
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/FFMy5O9YoY
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Eyes Retail Sales After Geopolitical Shock

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Eyes Retail Sales After Geopolitical Shock

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Kabul, Retail Sales, RBA, FED - Talking Points

  • Afghanistan attack sends geopolitical shock through markets
  • Australian retail sales on deck for today’s economic docket
  • AUD/USD ends rebound on Bearish Engulfing candlestick

Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar broke a 3-day winning streak versus the US Dollar after an attack in Kabul left dozens dead, including twelve US service members. The event sent a geopolitical shockwave through financial markets, ending a broad risk-on rally that saw US equity indexes and commodities surge. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index moved 0.59% lower in the New York trading session.

Haven flows aided USD strength, but also hawkish talk from several Federal Reserve members. On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan justified support for balance sheet tapering. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard and Kansas City Fed President Esther George joined Bullard to form the hawkish choir.

Australia’s preliminary July retail sales report will likely serve as today’s primary potential event risk. Analysts expect the month-over-month figure to cross the wires at -2.5%, according to a Bloomberg survey. That would mark the second consecutive down month for the closely-watched data print. The downbeat consensus comes amid ongoing lockdowns across Australia as Covid cases continue to rise at an alarming pace.

The Australian Dollar is on track to close this month out with a loss against the Greenback, which will mark the third consecutive monthly drop for the major currency pair. Aussie Dollar traders’ rosy view on the Australian economy wilted back in June as the highly transmissible Delta Covid variant outmaneuvered the government’s strict containment approach.

The economic costs have eaten into RBA policy tightening bets. Next month’s policy meeting may see a move to suspend a planned tapering of its balance sheet. Meanwhile, the Fed appears on course to announce tapering its own balance sheet next month, although that may come as soon as this weekend when Fed Chair Powell speaks from Jackson Hole.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook:

A Bearish Engulfing candlestick marked AUD/USD’s recent downturn, along with resistance from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Downside momentum may increase with the MACD line nearing a cross below the oscillator’s center line, a bearish signal. That said, the 38.2% Fib may provide support if prices continue to drop. Alternatively, a rebound may face resistance at the 61.8% Fib again on an upside move.

AUD/USD2-Hour Chart

audusd, westwater, chart

Chart created with TradingView

Australian Dollar TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES