News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.32% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.43% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.61% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/zsSb5yC3Kt
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.38% Silver: 0.04% Oil - US Crude: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/1ucq5uuf7U
  • US API Data: #Crude +0.436M VS Est.-2.975M #Cushing -1.286M #Gasoline -1.617M VS Est.+0.464M #Distillate +0.655M VS Est.-0.956M
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.52%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/qS7s1S6YOW
  • Dogecoin made another run at highs around the .40 level in celebration of ‘DODGE Day’. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/3vvKuTZ8oh https://t.co/2iLckP6ZUH
  • Netflix regarding subscriber miss - "We don’t believe competitive intensity materially changed in the quarter or was a material factor in the variance as the over-forecast was across all of our regions" Doesn't really inspire confidence...
  • Netflix Q1 Earnings: Revs: $7.16B vs. est. $7.14 EPS: $3.75 vs est. $2.98 $NFLX
  • Netflix earnings: $7.16b rev vs $7.14b est EPS: $3.75 vs $2.98 est Huge miss on subscribers added: +3.98m vs +6.29m est $NFLX shares 10% lower on subscriber miss
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2021/04/20/US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-EUR-USD-GBP-USD-USD-JPY-GBP-JPY.html
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.33% Germany 30: 0.25% France 40: 0.09% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/3jk8anEOJd
US Dollar Selling Streak May Pause if RNC Sparks Haven Demand

US Dollar Selling Streak May Pause if RNC Sparks Haven Demand

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

US Dollar Analysis, Republican National Convention, Donald Trump, Trade Wars – TALKING POINTS

  • US Dollar may rise if RNC and Trump comments spark haven demand
  • Latest polls show Biden in the lead. His popularity grew after the DNC
  • USD selloff showing signs of exhaustion – temporary pause or reversal?

71 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

With less than three months to go until November 3, incoming polling data on US President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden may start to unnerve – or bolster – market sentiment. While the Democratic National Convention did not appear to stir markets, polls taken after the three-day event indicate that Mr. Biden’s net approval was higher after the DNC concluded.

US Dollar Selling Streak May Pause if RNC Sparks Haven Demand

Source: RealClearPolitics

Markets Eye Republican National Convention

The Republican National Convention will take place August 24-27, with President Donald Trump speaking every night. This runs contrary to the tradition of having the presidential candidate speak only once, typically only on the night where they formally give an acceptance speech. While breaking away from convention has been Mr. Trump’s modus operandi, the move may hint at an underlying sense of urgency in generating more support.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Dimitri Zabelin
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide

The latest polling figures and widening lead between Mr. Biden and the President support this narrative. This idea is also reinforced by the RNC lineup: 5 out of the 12 speakers – or 41% – are of the Trump family. Even support within Mr. Trump’s own party appears to be weakening. In an open letter, over 70 former Republican national security officials have officially thrown their support behind Biden and decried Trump’s first term:

"Through [Trump’s] actions and his rhetoric, [he] has demonstrated that he lacks the character and competence to lead this nation and has engaged in corrupt behavior that renders him unfit to serve as President."

The strong language is not lost on anyone, and as a result, Mr. Trump may double down on his rhetoric in an effort to galvanize what appears to be ebbing support – and this is where markets may become uneasy. More forceful anti-China sentiment and hints at heightened trade conflicts with Europe and the East Asian giant may temporarily put a pause on the US Dollar’s spectacular decline if such comments catalyze a flight to havens.

Follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri for more updates on the impact of politics on markets!

US Dollar Analysis

Since topping in mid-March at 1.4169, the US Dollar Index – using a currency basket of USD vs JPY, AUD, EUR and GBP – has fallen over 12 percent and is now hovering at a 2-year low. However, price action since August 3 shows that the index has been trading in a relatively directionless manner. The reluctance to slide could mark the beginning of a reversal, though if so, the USD’s gains may be temporarily capped at 1.2630.

US Dollar Currency Basket vs Euro, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen – Weekly Chart

Chart showing US Dollar Index

USD chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitri on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES