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Nasdaq 100 Extends Rally, AUD/USD at Key Level Ahead of RBA Statement

Nasdaq 100 Extends Rally, AUD/USD at Key Level Ahead of RBA Statement

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

Australian Dollar, RBA, Nasdaq 100, AUD/USD – TALKING POINTS

  • Nasdaq 100 extends rally with cycle-sensitive assets after better-than-expected US jobs data
  • Technology stocks asymmetrically outpacing peers. Accelerated digitization put premium on tech?
  • AUD/USD shattered key resistance zone but now faces the late-January 2019 swing-high

Wall Street stocks closed again in the green, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices up 0.68, 0.64, and 1.00 percent, respectively, for the day. The information technology and communication services sub-categories in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones benchmarks contributed the most to each respective index’s rise. This may help explain why the tech-leaning Nasdaq was the best performing benchmark among its peers.

In the Dow Jones, index heavy-weight Apple Inc (APPL) rose over 3.40 percent, while in the S&P 500, tech giants like Facebook, Alphabet and Twitter led the way. The uninterrupted rally in technology stocks underscores the sector’s resilience and triumph over its peers who have experienced an asymmetric benefit from increased digitization and greater demand for digital services in a work-from-home environment.

In addition to operating in an sentimentally-accommodative environment, the threshold of risk was raised after US initial jobless claims data – while dismal in historical terms – was better than expected. The contextual improvement helped lift demand for growth-oriented assets and amplified gains in those that were already prospering – like technology stocks.

Friday’s Asia-Pacific Trading Session

Wall Street trade’s sentimental buoyancy may echo into Asia and lift growth-oriented currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars with Asia-Pacific stocks. AUD will be thrust into the spotlight ahead of the release of the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy following the interest rate decision on August 4. See a recap of the meeting here.

AUD/USD Outlook: Cautiously Bullish

AUD/USD’s impressive +25 percent rally since mid-March has shattered several layers of resistance along its ascent. The pair appears to be now positioning itself to potentially challenge the January 31, 2019 swing-high at 0.7295. While the bold break above 0.7206 is encouraging for AUD/USD bulls, negative RSI divergence points to slowing upside momentum ahead of key resistance.

The next few days may be critical in determining whether the pair may extend its rally or capitulates under key resistance. The latter scenario may beckon bears to exit their caves if the retreat is interpreted as the beginning of a broader retreat. For more technical insight, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.

AUD/USD – Daily Chart

Chart showing AUD/USD

AUD/USD chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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