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Why Might the US Dollar Finally Turn?

Why Might the US Dollar Finally Turn?

2015-02-02 16:30:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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- US Dollar positioning is stretched, reversal risk seems especially high this week

- One-sided retail FX trader sentiment keeps our eye on Euro, Yen, and Commodity Bloc

- We will stick to the volatility-friendly Breakout2 trading system across major pairs

Key economic event risk in the week ahead promises major FX moves, and volatility prices continue to trade near multi-year peaks. Overall momentum clearly favors further US Dollar gains; the trend is up until it isn’t. Yet it is increasingly difficult to ignore one-sided professional trader positions as recent CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows EURUSD positions at 3-year extremes.

Forex Volatility Prices Remain Elevated Ahead of Another Key Week

Why Might the US Dollar Finally Turn?

Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

Our trading strategy is thus somewhat contingent on the Dollar’s next steps, but overall we feel that the volatility-friendly Breakout2 trading system may do well given elevated FX vols. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results, but the strategy has done well in Commodity Bloc pairs (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD). It could continue to outperform if we see further moves from key US Dollar counterparts.

It nonetheless remains critical to note that volatility can work for and against us. It will be critical to keep trading leverage low in what promises to be another big week for FX markets.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Why Might the US Dollar Finally Turn?Why Might the US Dollar Finally Turn?

Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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