News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EDT on DailyFX! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • EUR/USD fell sharply last week and there are few signs yet that the selling is over. However, a bounce is likely before the decline resumes. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/BxglKuKVhj https://t.co/8nJQXhUTHI
  • The week ahead has many systemic issues that take control of the markets, but scheduled data is heavily skewed to the Dollar. Here is my video for the week ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/09/26/SP-500-Break-Risk-and-Dollar-Charge-Sees-Accelerants-Next-Week.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/PL3KZhn1HV
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/QJp3jpS3Ui
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here: https://t.co/AKmlmaAZBS https://t.co/ukvZfr6BXf
  • BoE’s Tenreyro says evidence on negative rates are “encouraging” Meanwhile, STOXX Europe Banks Index resides at all time lows https://t.co/bBYcLrtXhj
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/yy0FTn9Pnp
  • Anti-fiat #gold prices suffered the worst week since August as the US Dollar gained ground. Will losses extend? All eyes turn to fiscal stimulus hopes and non-farm payrolls data. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/054CJvOWw4 https://t.co/BzODShHmqH
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/me8wMRpJjE
  • What is seasonal change in volatility. Are we going through one right now? Find out: https://t.co/G0qfpOmMl2 https://t.co/HXCQzUQgxA
Crude Oil Prices May Seesaw Between Iran Politics, Growth Sentiment

Crude Oil Prices May Seesaw Between Iran Politics, Growth Sentiment

2019-06-15 04:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:
WTI

OIL FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL

  • Crude oil bulls eye Iran politics, rising geopolitical tension in Gulf states
  • FOMC, BoE rate decision may sap confidence in global growth prospects
  • The tong-term outlook suggests crude oil prices will eventually capitulate

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

Crude oil prices will find themselves potentially in a tug-of-war between rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East – with Iran at the epicenter – and fading optimism over the future of global growth. Markets will be closely eyeing the FOMC rate decision where investors are largely expecting for policymakers to hold rates. However, market participants will also likely be expecting for commentary to hold dovish undertones.

The most recent publication of US CPI shows that price growth is weakening, giving the Fed impetus to shift away from its neutral stance. If Chairman Jerome Powell comes off dovish, it may send the S&P 500 higher as investors cheer the prospect of cheaper credit. As a cycle-sensitive commodity that frequently mimics movements in the benchmark equity index, crude oil prices may also rally.

Crude oil prices may get an additional boost if geopolitical tensions in the Middle Eastern Gulf states – namely between Iran and its neighbors – rises. Earlier this week, news broke that a Japanese tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, a key geographic point where approximately 20 percent of all oil shipments have to pass through. Crude oil prices jumped amid accusations from Washington that the attack was orchestrated by Iran.

Crude oil prices jump on politically-based supply shocks

UKOIL

However, supply shock fears from geopolitical risks may be overshadowed by eroded global demand and significant shifts in sentiment. Next week’s FOMC meeting may be a catalyst for risk aversion if dovish commentary is characterized by an unusual amount of pessimism regarding the outlook for growth. The BoE rate decision may amplify this effect if its assessment of Brexit and the economy echoes a similar message.

CRUDE OIL TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES