FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: China New Yuan Loans; US Inflation Rate; German Inflation Rate; UK GDP; US Consumer Sentiment
FX Week Ahead Overview:
- It’s a quieter global economic calendar, but there are still several ‘high’ rated events that will stir volatility. Most of the action comes in the second half of the week.
- The top billed item on the calendar this week is Thursday’s January US inflation rate report (CPI), which could stoke speculation about a more aggressive Fed rate hike cycle starting next month.
- Central banks aren’t completely off the calendar; there are several speeches in the coming days by policymakers from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and Reserve Bank of Australia.
For the full week ahead, please visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar.
02/10 THURSDAY | 08:00 GMT | CNY New Yuan Loans (JAN)
The Chinese economy continues to be heading towards a ‘soft landing’ of sorts, as it appears that efforts by the government – both fiscal and monetary authorities – to increase credit availability have provided a much-needed lifeline. While the property sector remains a significant problem, evidence that increased loan origination will help ‘kick the can down the road’ with respect to the moment of reckoning. A Bloomberg News survey suggests that new yuan loans rose to ¥3680B from ¥1130B. Among the major currencies, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars will prove most sensitive to the release.
02/10 THURSDAY | 13:30 GMT | USD Inflation Rate Report (CPI) (JAN)
Inflation pressures are holding at and pushing higher into 40-year highs, even as Federal Reserve policymakers strongly suggest that rate hikes will arrive quickly in the coming months. The fact of the matter is that the COVID-19 omicron variant infection rate surge stoked further supply chain issues, which means that headline US inflation rates could still push higher in the near-term.
According to a Bloomberg News survey, the headline January US inflation rate (CPI) is due in steady at +0.5% m/m at +7.3% y/y from +7% y/y, with the core inflation rate (ex-energy and food) due in at +0.5% m/m from +0.6% m/m and at +5.9% y/y from +5.5%. The data will likely help keep US rate hike expectations firm and US Treasury yields pointed higher, which have been supportive of a stronger US Dollar.
02/11 FRIDAY | 07:00 GMT | EUR German Inflation Rate Report (HICP) (JAN)
The upside surprise in the initial German inflation rate reading last week sparked a move higher in the Euro as speculation gathered that the European Central Bank would abandon its recalcitrant stance towards raising interest rates in 2022. Indeed, the February ECB meeting yielded strong hints that policymakers were considered rate hikes later in the year, contingent upon inflationary pressures failing to recede. Some wind may be taken out of the Euro’s sails if the final January German inflation rate report (HICP) shows that price pressures were in at +4.9% y/y from the previously reported +5.3% y/y reading.
02/11 FRIDAY | 07:00 GMT | GBP Gross Domestic Product (DEC, 4Q)
The UK economy appears to have weathered the early phase of the COVID-19 omicron variant surge, insofar as the 3-month growth rate is expected to come in at +1.1% for the October-December period, the same rate of growth as the September-November period. The year-over-year reading is due in at +6.3% from +8.0%, a strong reading that will likely keep near-term BOE rate hike odds elevated. The British Pound is likely to stay supported by the data, barring a significant miss.
02/11 FRIDAY | 15:00 GMT | USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FEB P)
US consumer confidence has taken a beating in recent months, thanks to the sustained push higher by inflationary pressures coupled with a fresh COVID-19 infection rate surge. But consumer confidence readings are having little impact on financial markets, insofar as traders are more concerned with the Fed’s rate hike machinations. With inflation pressures likely pushing higher, and US stock markets having slipped in recent weeks, another drop in consumer confidence shouldn’t be a surprise – but that’s less of an issue for the US Dollar and more of a problem for the Biden administration.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.