News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/MXN drops back into its recent range as investors await further guidance from economic data. Get your weekly Mexican Peso forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/reMgPrFGdF https://t.co/dl6gomcFxF
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0uF2Ct https://t.co/KS13JNwlvL
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/bxQ8s8eGjR
  • Australian Dollar plunged for a fifth week but held key downtrend support at the yearly lows. Get your weekly AUD technical forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/uyUWYQoYS7 https://t.co/BXid10FYD1
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/eReyYRYOn1
  • Last week’s march higher in EUR/USD may well extend further after Friday’s Eurozone economic statistics that will likely turn the ECB more hawkish on monetary policy. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/EWrJy5LfOF https://t.co/NQj5xCdw9b
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHHGbZ https://t.co/uDeIMr1Ks4
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/srqRhfdKUd
  • Cable is pulling off after a strong run; near-term weakness may be the theme before trying to rally again. Get your weekly GBP technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/030gXzxlEc https://t.co/ux7W6OcBOm
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/FPKAoLQuuI
FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: July US Durable Goods Orders Report & EUR/USD Rate Forecast

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: July US Durable Goods Orders Report & EUR/USD Rate Forecast

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

US Durable Goods Orders Report Overview

  • The preliminary March US Durable Goods Orders report is due on Monday, August 26 at 12:30 GMT and the data should help further stabilize the rebound in US growth expectations seen in recent days.
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for Q3’19 US GDP at 2.2% after hitting a low of 1.8% in the second week of August.
  • Retail traders have remained net-long since July 1 when EURUSD traded near 1.1366; price has moved 2.0% lower since then.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

08/26 MONDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Durable Goods Orders (JUL P)

The US economy revolves around consumption trends, given that approximately 70% of GDP is accounted for by the spending habits of businesses and consumers. As such, the durable goods orders reportmake for an important barometer of the US economy.

Durable goods are items with lifespans of three-years or longer – from refrigerators and washing machines to cars and airplanes. These items typically require greater capital investment or financing to secure, meaning that traders can use the report as a proxy for business’ and consumers’ financial confidence and health.

The preliminary July print is expected to show a gain of 1.1% after the 1.9% drop in June.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3’19 US GDP Forecast (August 23, 2019) (Chart 1)

us gdp forecast, atlanta fed gdpnow

The durable goods orders reportcould help further stabilize the rebound in US growth expectations seen in recent days. Based on the information received thus far about Q3’19, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for growth at 2.2% after hitting a low of 1.8% in the second week of August. The next update to the Q3’19 forecast will be released after Monday’s US economic data.

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (August 2018 to August 2019) (Chart 2)

eurusd price forecast, eurusd technical analysis, eurusd price chart, eurusd chart, eurusd price

In our last EURUSD technical forecast update, it was noted that “in a symmetrical triangle pattern, the bias is neutral as momentum is flat…it’s too soon to say that the symmetrical triangle is not part of a continuation effort to new lows rather than a bottoming attempt.” Patience has proven a virtue once again, as the attempt by EURUSD to breakdown out of the symmetrical triangle has been thwarted in the form of a bullish key reversal/outside engulfing bar on the daily timeframe.

With the daily bullish key reversal/outside engulfing bar forming, EURUSD now appears likely to make a return to triangle resistance closer towards 1.1200. Price is now above the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, while daily MACD and Slow Stochastics have turned higher (albeit still in bearish territory). The symmetrical triangle pattern is still neutral, but traders may want to focus on the topside potential once more.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURUSD Price Forecast (August 23, 2019) (Chart 3)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs eurusd, eurusd price chart, eurusd price forecast, eurusd technical analysis

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 61.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.63 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since July 1 when EURUSD traded near 1.1366; price has moved 2.0% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Aug 16 when EURUSD traded near 1.10898. The number of traders net-long is 17.9% lower than yesterday and 13.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.5% lower than yesterday and 1.0% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES