We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The spread of #coronavirus promises a global economic hit at a time when the global economy is perhaps especially ill-equipped to deal with one. Growth-correlated assets are vulnerable. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/0If0Jw7c2P https://t.co/mph6z70XeF
  • The $JPY continues to struggle against the US Dollar but there seems little appetite to push USD/JPY much beyond a range which has tended to reassert itself since late last year. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/iaVfPSuXy4 https://t.co/1QPhJmYlQv
  • The #Euro may bounce after hitting the lowest level in close to three years against the US Dollar. While the broader trend points firmly lower, selling pressure may be ebbing. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/697SQ9j5FY https://t.co/6SEvwQyod8
  • GBP/CAD has broken below the September uptrend while EUR/CAD may be ending its consecutive 12 day decline with EUR/CHF approaching key resistance as NZD/CAD aims at November lows. Get your currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/GpRB7IKhTA https://t.co/hlHlGdhkHc
  • The $GBP recoiled from chart resistance against the US Dollar, setting the stage for prices to resume a bearish trend reversal triggered mid-January. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/lVpyZkIfJt https://t.co/9oXusxs0Kg
  • The #Euro may have more room to fall versus its major peers such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and British Pound. What is the technical picture of EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/M6fLA9g3BK https://t.co/HMwQgr1WP5
  • The $USD’s aggressive rise versus ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso prolonged. What is the technical road ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/RsFptNzODf https://t.co/u8meQUSsVG
  • $AUD broke critical range support against its US counterpart, suggesting deeper losses are ahead even after prices hit an 11-year low. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/45YpJRjDYj https://t.co/zWAzaL78Sc
  • After negotiating a series of economic and geopolitical risks in 2019, the S&P 500 rounded out the year more than 30% higher. Will the stock market crash in 2020? Find out from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/8KsjB9YkBB https://t.co/4ph9bdMxz9
  • Italy reports first death from coronavirus - BBG
FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: August RBA Meeting Minutes & AUD/USD Rate Forecast

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: August RBA Meeting Minutes & AUD/USD Rate Forecast

2019-08-16 19:50:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

August RBA Meeting Minutes Overview:

  • The August RBA meeting minutes are due to be on Tuesday, August 20 at 01:30 GMT, and the tone is likely to come in on the dovish side.
  • However, September RBA meeting interest rate cut odds have fallen in recent weeks, so any AUDUSD weakness around the minutes may be short-lived.
  • Retail traders have remained net-long since July 19 when AUDUSD traded near 0.7012; price has moved 3.2% lower since then (no change over the past week).

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

08/20 TUESDAY| 01:30 GMT | AUD AUGUST RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA MEETING MINUTES

Prior to the August Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, there was a 44% chance of a 25-bps interest rate cut in September. After the August RBA meeting, at the end of last week, there was a 47% chance of a 25-bps rate cut. But with US President Donald Trump announcing a détente in the US-China trade war – the proposed 10% tariffs on $300 billion of imported Chinese goods has been delayed from September 1 to December 15 – speculation around major central banks’ easing cycles has been severely curbed.

Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Expectations (August 16, 2019) (Table 1)

rba rate, interest rate, rba interest rate, rba rate expectations, aud rate expectations, reserve bank of australia rate cut odds, rba rate cut odds

Now, interest rate markets have eased off those dovish expectations compared to where they were before and immediately after the August RBA meeting. There is a 77% chance of no change in rates at the September RBA meeting. If the August RBA meeting minutes produce weakness in AUDUSD, it may be limited given that the tone around the US-China trade war has evolved.

That said, rates market continue to foresee two 25-bps rate cuts by the end of the year: there is a 67% chance of the first 25-bps rate cut coming in October and a 60% chance of the second 25-bps rate cut coming in December.

Pairs to Watch: AUDJPY, AUDNZD, AUDUSD

AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Timeframe (August 2018 to August 2019) (Chart 1)

audusd price, audusd technical analysis, audusd chart, audusd price forecast, audusd price chart

In our last AUDUSD technical forecast, it was noted that “until the daily 8-EMA is breached – AUDUSD has closed below it every session since July 23 – there is little reason to look higher.” The daily 8-EMA was breached with a close above it on August 13, even though there has yet to be follow through to the topside. Now, the daily 13-EMA is shoring up resistance; it has not been breached since July 23 on a closing basis either.

While AUDUSD is still below its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, daily MACD has turned higher (albeit in bullish territory) while Slow Stochastics continue to climb towards neutral. Although the bias may still be for lower AUDUSD prices, traders may want to see how the recent high/low range between 0.6736 and 0.6822 breaks before choosing a direction.

IG Client Sentiment Index: AUDUSD Rate Forecast (August 16, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs audusd, audusd price chart, audusd price forecast, audusd technical analysis

AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 73.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.7 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since July 19 when AUDUSD traded near 0.7012; price has moved 3.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.0% lower than yesterday and 3.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.3% lower than yesterday and 1.1% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.