Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Top 5 Events: Q1’19 US GDP & EURUSD Price Forecast

Top 5 Events: Q1’19 US GDP & EURUSD Price Forecast

What's on this page

Talking Points:

- The initial Q1’19 US GDP report is due on Friday, April 26 at 12:30 GMT.

- Q1’19 US GDP expectations come in between 1.4% and 2.8%, but the trend is clear: the US government shutdown impact was limited, and the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates anytime soon.

- Retail traders are fading US Dollar gains, and the outlook for EURUSD has turned bearish.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.


For much of the first quarter, there was great concern that the US government shutdown between December 23 and January 25 would have a significant negative impact on Q1’19 US GDP. And while the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a net $3 billion in wages would be lost, ultimately, it appears that the underlying strength of the US economy will have prevailed past the government’s self-inflicted wounds.

The Bloomberg News survey is calling for US GDP to come in at 2.2% annualized. Depending upon where you look, estimates vary. The New York Nowcast estimate for Q1’19 US GDP is only at 1.4%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing at 2.8% growth. Regardless, it does appear that any near-term concerns about the US economy dipping into a recession were overblown.

fed rate expectations, usd rate expectations, federal reserve rate cut odds, fed rate cut odds

As such, rate expectations have evolved in a manner to suggest that market participants no longer feel the Federal Reserve will embark on a dovish policy course in the imminent future. In fact, at the end of March, Fed funds futures were pricing in greater than a 50% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by July 2019; now, markets are favoring the Federal Reserve to stay on hold for the rest of 2019.

Such a dramatic shift in expectations in just the span of a few weeks has proven helpful to the US Dollar as it tries to work off a six-month long consolidation (via the DXY Index), mirroring the multi-month consolidation seen in EURUSD.

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

EURUSD Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (January 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

eurusd price forecast, eurusd technical forecast, eurusd price chart, eurusd chart, eurusd price

EURUSD rates weakened meaningfully by the end of the week, with the uptrend from the April 2 low busted by the breakdown on April 18. Momentum has started to shift more to the downside, now that EURUSD price is below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope. Similarly, daily Slow Stochastics have started to swing lower, while daily MACD has narrowed and nearly flipped to the downside.

Given rising European growth concerns, a strong Q1’19 US GDP report could reinvigorate US Dollar bulls and help breakout of the multi-month ranges trapping price action. After all, the last six-months of trading in EURUSD has been the tightest six-month range seen since the inception of the Euro on January 1, 1999.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURUSD (April 19, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs eurusd, eurusd price chart, eurusd price forecast

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 60.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.52 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 10.8% higher than yesterday and 6.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 22.7% lower than yesterday and 14.1% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.