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AUD/USD Trends Lower Ahead of Employment Data

AUD/USD Trends Lower Ahead of Employment Data

2016-08-17 12:42:00
Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor
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Talking Points

  • AUD/USD Trends Lower Ahead of Employment Data
  • Daily and Monthly Lows for the AUD/USD Reside at .7615
  • What’s next for the AUD/USD and US Dollar Pairs? Learn more with our Trading Guide

The AUD/USD continues to decline from yesterday’s high at .7749. This move in price has been guided by a descending trendline, which is drawn below by connecting a series of swing highs over the last two trading sessions. Aussie traders should continue to monitor this line ahead of today’s employment data as an ongoing point of resistance. Expectations for AUD Employment Change (July) figures are set at 10k, and any deviation from this value may result in a significant shift in the short term pricing of the AUD/USD.

AUD/USD, 15 Minute Chart & breakout

AUD/USD Trends Lower Ahead of Employment Data

Chart prepared by Walker England

Short term price action can be seen in the 10 minute graph below. The AUD/USD can currently be seen trading to new daily lows at .7615. The Grid Sight Index (GSI) is currently highlighting a short term downtrend, with the pair printing a series of lower lows in early trading. After reviewing 23,227,069 pricing points, GSI has indicated that price action has continued to decline 21 pips or more in 46% of the 13 matching historical events. Today’s primary bearish distribution is found at .7596. A move through this point would place the AUD/USD at both new weekly and daily lows.

Alternatively, GSI has indicated that prices have advanced by 40 pips or more in only 20% of the identified historical matches. Today’s first bullish distribution is found at .7657. A move through this value may signify the beginning of a retracement of this morning’s decline. In this scenario, traders should continue to watch and see if the AUD/USD challenges other short term points of resistance. This includes the previous swing high found at .7676

Want to learn more about GSI? Get started learning about the Index HERE.

AUD/USD Trends Lower Ahead of Employment Data

Sentiment for the AUD/USD remains negative with SSI (speculative sentiment index) reading at -1.48. With 60% of positioning short, SSI suggests that the AUD/USD may continue to advance. In the event that the AUD/USD breaks above values of resistance, it would be expected to see SSI shift to a negative extreme of -2.0 or more. Alternatively in the event that prices continue to decline, traders may look for SSI to shift back towards a positive reading.

Are traders long or short the market Find out here!

AUD/USD Trends Lower Ahead of Employment Data

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