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EUR/USD Awaits ECB For Direction

EUR/USD Awaits ECB For Direction

Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor


Talking Points:

The EUR/USD remains in the spotlight for this week, as attention shifts to this Thursday’s ECB rate decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 0.00%. However with signs of rising inflation beginning to appear in Europe, traders will be looking for clues on a future shift in policy from the ECB. In the event of new forward guidance on rates, there may be a dramatic reaction from the EUR/USD.

Technically the EUR/USD has failed to make significant progress for the month of March. Despite last Friday’s 122 pip advance, the pair may still be seen as range bound. Current resistance for the EUR/USD is found near yesterday’s high of 1.0640. Daily support may alternatively be found at the February 22nd low at 1.0493. In the event of a volatile market reaction from the ECB, traders may continue to use these values to plan for a EUR/USD breakout.

EUR/USD Daily Range

(Created Using IG Charts)

Intraday analysis now has the EUR/USD trading below its central pivot, and moving on support found at 1.0555. If prices continue to trade lower for Tuesdays session, other values of support are found at the S2 (1.0532) and S3 (1.0489) pivots. If prices close below today’s S3 pivot, it should be seen as significant. A move here would place the EUR/USD below the previously mentioned daily low of 1.0493, and suggest that the markets are breaking lower. In the event that prices remain supported, it suggests that the EUR/USD may continue to remain inside of its larger range.

Key points of intraday resistance includes the R1 (1.0621) and R2 (1.0664) pivots. Before the EUR/USD reaches either of these values however, the pair must first trade back above today’s central pivot at 1.0598. A move through this point would suggest a change in intraday momentum, opening up the pair to test these values of resistance. Again it should be noted that a move beyond the R3 pivot would place the EUR/USD outside of its daily range. In this bullish scenario, traders may elect to target new higher highs as the pair trends upward.

EUR/USD, 30 Minute Chart with Pivots

(Created Using IG Charts)

--- Written by Walker, Analyst for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.