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Diversifying Themes of Risk Trends and BoJ Doubt Beyond USD/JPY

Diversifying Themes of Risk Trends and BoJ Doubt Beyond USD/JPY

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY has posted its biggest drop in nearly 7 years and taken out long-term support along the way
  • This pair reflects well on both risk trends and skepticism over the BoJ's influence, but there are cross winds
  • Trading a theme versus the particulars of a singular pair can be better accomplished through diversification

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

USD/JPY has suffered its biggest one-week decline since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy that pitched the global financial system into tumult back in late 2008. This momentum represents a remarkable opportunity between technical and fundamental confluence these past weeks, but there are cross winds to take note of. The divergence between the US and Japanese monetary policy is extreme, and can readily offset the capable drive found in doubts surrounding the BoJ's capability to devalue its currency and emerging views of risk aversion. Trading the themes behind investor sentiment and growing doubt over the influence of the world's most prominent bearish central banks can represent considerable opportunity. However, there is a significant difference between trading such a big-picture concept and trading a specific pair or asset. In this weekend Strategy Video, we discuss the idea of diversifying exposure to trade themes rather than concentrate exposure in a particular asset that may incur far more collateral influence than a trader may intend.

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