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US Jobs Data and RBA Rate Decision Next Week

US Jobs Data and RBA Rate Decision Next Week

Jeremy Naylor,

With the markets exiting the third quarter the European markets have had a remarkable recovery from the mid quarter slump with things turning up for continental stocks going into the end of September.

This came as the UK's FTSE 100 saw initial gains which evaporated and turned the index negative. The FTSE underperformed both the French and German indexes.

Looking ahead to next week, Jeremy Naylor looks at the midweek release of the UK Chartered Institute of Purchasing Manager’s service data. The service sector being the largest part of the UK economy. The markets are looking for a reading 53.2, no change on the previous month.

Elsewhere, coming out of the weekend, early on in the Japanese day there’s the Tanken survey.

It’s an economic survey of Japanese business issued by the central Bank of Japan, which it then uses to formulate monetary policy. The report is released four times a year in April, July, October and mid-December.

Economists are looking for a single point increase to 18. The significance of this is that a reading of 18 would be the highest reading since the beginning of 2014.

On Tuesday we have the Australian interest rate decision. Recent commentary from reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe said that it would be reasonable to assume that the “next rate move will be up rather than down”. Will it come this week?

Certainly the markets are not expecting it and, like all other central bank governors, Mr Lowe won’t want to surprise the markets and there’s been no hint that it will come this week. Assuming rates remain at 1.5%, it’s really just a question of identifying any new hawkish language.

But the big number… or numbers to watch are the US jobless data.

First up, on Wednesday is the ADP private payrolls figure. After last month’s larger than forecast 237,000, the hurricanes, that badly affected the southern United States, are forecast to have pushed this number down to 172,000.

Will that give rise to steer Friday’s government number on non-farm payrolls? It certainly did not last month. While the ADP over shot, the NFP number was very subdued at 156,000. The big question is whether the recent spate of hurricane weather will have made an impact?

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--- Written by Jeremy Naylor, DailyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.