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Silver Price Surge Brings Long-term Breakout into Play, Gold Too

Silver Price Surge Brings Long-term Breakout into Play, Gold Too

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Silver/gold technical highlights:

  • Silver rockets higher, breakout potential surges with it
  • Capitulation in the futures market?
  • Gold could soon post weekly close above 2013 trend-line

For a longer-term fundamental and technical outlook on Gold or any of your favorite markets/currency pairs, check out the DailyFX 2Q Forecasts.

Silver rockets higher, breakout potential surges with it

Yesterday’s surge in silver finally sprung it free from the congestion it was caught in for the past couple of months and suddenly brings to light the prospects of an important long-term breakout. There is still some work to be done, but a weekly close above 17.70 will have silver trading out in ‘open space’.

The coiling price action over the past couple of years could lead to a strong move. Furthermore, large speculators in the futures market have given up on the precious metal in recent weeks by turning from net-long to net-short for the first time since 2003.

Silver Weekly Chart (Needs to get into ‘open space’)

Silver weekly price chart, breakout potential rises

Capitulation in the futures market?

This is what we had to say last month regarding CoT changes in the positioning of large speculators in the silver market: “After having held long for such an extended period, is their turn to net-short a sign of more weakness to come or capitulation on what has been a losing proposition since the top in 2011? Right now, we are leaning with the latter scenario.”

With the rally on the verge of growing legs, price action may soon corroborate the notion we have indeed seen a capitulation. Should silver continue rise, there is plenty of money on the sideline to provide silver with buying power to run it higher. But before getting too bullish, seeing price trade into ‘open space’ above two varying angled trend-lines will be needed before silver can gain momentum.

Silver Futures Positioning Chart (Large Specs Capitulate?)

Silver CoT futres positioning, large speculators may have capitulated

Gold could soon post weekly close above 2013 trend-line

We’ve been discussing gold and the 2013 trend-line quite a bit lately. Several times this year it has popped above it on an intra-week basis, but failed to close out Friday above the threshold. That has left gold in a state of limbo. Another fake-out breakout could happen this week, but as soon as it closes beyond the trend-line and above the trading range in place since January, then a big rally could be in order.

Traders remain long gold, check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how this acts as a contrarian indicator.

Gold Weekly Chart (Soon to close above?)

2013 trend-line,out of range">

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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